Kabila’s hour for peace or endless war

DR Congo’s problems never seem to end. Even when they appear to be over, trouble is never far away.Today, all news reports speak of the end of the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC. But no one is celebrating yet – at any rate not in the manner the Congolese are known to celebrate. Even the usual bombast from Lambert Mende has been rather muted. President Joseph Kabila’s foreign backers sound unusually conciliatory, insisting that military victory is not adequate in permanently sorting out DRC’s problems. After blocking attempts for a political solution for so long and actively undermining the peace talks in Kampala, the so-called international community now says it backs them as the best way out of the mire in the Congo. So why is a feeling of triumph being kept in check? And why this sudden change of heart by Kabila’s supporters?Maybe it is a reflection of a correct assessment of the real issues that had been wilfully suppressed. Or perhaps it is a case of conveniently being wiser after the fact. Whatever the reason, it is obvious that war need not have been fought in the first place because its causes are well known and solutions not difficult to find. Which leaves one with the only conclusion – that war was allowed to happen because that would serve the political and economic purposes of certain groups and countries.The cautious reaction to the supposed defeat of M23 may also point to concerns that the rebels have not been really vanquished. They seem to have only vanished, melted into the misty hills and potentially remain a potent force.Regardless of the reasons for the muted sense of triumph, the present circumstances present President Kabila with an opportunity to redeem himself, exert control over the whole country and be a statesman. At the same time, he faces a severe test of his leadership and character now that his excuse for failure has been removed.In addition, he has to balance many conflicting demands from his domestic as well as foreign allies.Which way he will go, and whether he has the capacity to strike the right balance and also assert his independence remains the big question. The challenges ranged against him are probably too big for him to handle.First, it is now pay up time. All those who came to his aid are now presenting their promissory notes for payment.Some in Africa have already been. Others are bound to follow or have done so quietly. The big powers took their cut a long time ago. They are now consolidating new acquisitions. The notion that DRC is a sovereign state whose integrity Kabila can protect is a piece of fiction. The country is simply a patchwork of mining and other concessions owned by a diverse group of individuals and companies from equally diverse countries. President Kabila and his government are merely overseers for all these interests with permission to plunder on their own.Secondly, Kabila has the opportunity to extend the authority of the state over the whole country. Will he take it? More likely, he will leave control of the east of the country to MONUSCO, effectively ceding that part of the country to international control. In any case, he probably has little choice in the matter.Thirdly, he has the chance to act the statesman, rise above narrow interests and the bitterness of the past and address the root causes of the conflicts of the east of DRC that have been going on since independence – the same causes that led his father to fight the Mobutu government in the 1960s. As a first step, Kabila can raise his statesman credentials by being magnanimous in victory and seeking political accommodation of his opponents. That means he must be committed to the peace negotiations in Kampala.Finally, the DRC president can live up to his international obligations and disarm all foreign armed groups in his country, including the genocidal FDLR. Again, whether he can do this may prove difficult. The FDLR question is especially tricky for him. The FDLR has made eastern Congo its base, from where it has been wreaking havoc in the region for the last 20 years. The DRC government has shown unwillingness or inability to disarm them in the past and there is no reason to believe that they can do so now.There are other FDLR elements that are integrated into the Congolese military (FARDC). Kabila would have to demobilise them. Does he have the will or the capacity to do that?Then there are other FDLR fighters who have taken advantage of the deployment of the UN Force Intervention Brigade to infiltrate into DRC or even the ranks of the brigade. Kabila obviously does not have control over these fighters.The changed circumstances in the DRC have placed the ball firmly in Kabila’s court. The world – certainly the region – is waiting to see whether he will break free of the shackles of the various concessionaires and act as a Congolese patriot and statesman, or whether he will choose to remain willing captive. His choice will determine whether peace returns to DRC or the cycle of violence continues.josephrwagatare.wordpress.com

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Kabila’s hour for peace or endless war