Change with stability and continuity: A political homework (Part XVIII)

A common strand of feedback from readers of these series has been: what issues are so critical that, the change of current political dispensation, if not properly managed, has the potential to adversely reverse gains attained at a priceless cost any country has paid in recent past?Now, this is an open question which warrants an open answer, for most issues that define modern Rwanda, are critical to our development, that change in our current political dispensation has a reversal effect.I have pointed out from the previous series that the answer to our political homework becomes abstract and thus obsolete and indeed irrelevant, if it fails to capture our context: past, present, and our future. Our contextual framework is core and critical to getting the right answer to our political homework, lest we answer a homework for another country, with the consequence that we get it wrong for ourselves and for generations to come.Contextual frameworkAnd so, a brief summary of some of our context will bring out the salient features of issues that are so critical that, failure to address the same will ultimately reverse all gains we all see around us.As pointed out severally in these series, ours has been an abnormal country. Genocide that cost us one million of our compatriots was the climax of the abnormal Rwanda, that had started the abnormality trend as early as 1959 or earlier than that. Like many other African societies, the governance structures in Rwanda was monarchical, (typical of the then systems in Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania etc) and such systems were designed to answer developmental challenges our fore fathers faced at the time. Social constructs at the time accepted these as the best systems to have their common good from economic, to social welfare, and security could be enjoyed by all. And they did. This was to be reversed by the colonial regimes, for they were prejudicial to their interests of resource extraction, the end state of any colonial system. For Y-generation, a summary of colonial background suffices to capture part of our context, and one that has shaped post-colonial abnormal Rwanda. Colonial legacyUnlike in other African colonial legacies which espoused divide and rule, ours took it to the extreme. Belgian colonial legacy was indeed modeled on their own political set up, which is the most divided political panorama in the west. The Walloons and Flemish societal divide in Belgium which was exported to Rwanda in its raw form so much so that, it changed everything Rwanda (from economy, social cohesion, culture etc) until recent times. The so called 1959 popular “Hutu” social revolution was not societal creation, but rather Belgian colonial model of divide and rule which was to become so ruthless that, it did discriminate Tutsis from everything Rwandan. Indeed this revolution was aimed at dismantling the monarchical set-up and everything close to it. Since it was part of our fabric for generations, its breakdown was so fundamental that, it also dismantled Rwandan social construct so much so that, it sowed seeds of extreme hatred of a people by their own, to the extent, that it started the first episode of genocide against Tutsis in 1958. This drove many to abyss as refugees that were demonished for more than three centuries. This was to be the beginning of abnormal Rwanda, but certainly not the end. And unlike in other African post colonial societies, independence of Rwanda was not to be. Colonisation of Rwandan mindset kept on, so much so that, the divide resulting from the same, became ideological centre piece of the then successive political regimes, which had nothing to show for the development of our country for three decades, except such serious divide and resultant extreme ethnic hatred of any modern African society. The ideology of a divided society was embedded in the Rwandese social construct where one part of the society was seen as ‘eternal enemy’ to the other, a situation that gave rise to genocides of 1967, 1973, and finally, 1994. But all this time, from economy to social goods and services, this divide became an entitlement to one section of our society at the expense of the other. This was not only a political ideology, but a creed by the catholic Christian system, bedfellows to this political ideology, only second if not similar to the apartheid system in South Africa. The difference being that, ours was of black compatriot to their own. Nevertheless, the net result was quite similar. The entrenched hatred that bred extremism and supremacists was so deep and entrenched into Rwanda social fabric that, undoing the same may take a generation after us. This is part of the essence of our abnormal Rwanda.Journey to normalcyAs pointed out earlier, our country has had the most chaotic, most divisive, most outdated, most bankrupt, most … political dispensation of any post-colonial African country on record. And as such rebuilding of such an abnormal country had to be holistic and decisive too, for us to be where we are now, a miracle by all measure and account. Our country, has paid a heavy price in every sense to be where we are today. Had it not been for the exemplary leadership of President Kagame, this journey would have been void. But we are no where we can call our current level of development be it political, social or even economic; sustainable. Far from it. The divisive social construct that was a creed to a large part of our society has been managed, but not completely reversed. It is a process, and one that calls for strategic patience by leaders and the lead. Given that we owe this critical process of our nationhood to current exemplary leadership, we are equally bound to lose it in its absence if we get our homework wrong. Reversal of our social constructs requires multifaceted strategies and time to accomplish. It also requires that, the political dispensation that started the same is not disrupted, for it is this very system that understands the threats and strength of the system. An alien to these systems, will either underrate them, or manage these as business as usual, with catastrophic outcomes. Reversible trendsAnd so to readers of these series, one area which is very susceptible to fundamental reversal and with it, all gains made: is our unity and reconciliation. A lot has been done in this domain, but much more remains to be done to ensure that, this institution is in irreversible and sustainable mode. Threats to unity and reconciliation are both political as they economic. Political in the sense that, change at stake may bring with it divisive politics (by design or default) which has the potential to divide not only the current political set up, but also different social structures still in a healing progress. Our present political dispensation has been as authentic as it can be, in the healing of ethnic wounds and is seen as an anchor to further sustainable healing necessary for our sustained development. President Kagame’s unrivalled moral legitimacy has been critical to the reconciliation and healing process of abnormal Rwanda. The societal divide has bought his message of reconciliation at face value. His integration strategy has been accepted by most (except extremists and supremacists who are outliers to our society haunted by the past heinous crimes to their own). Such moral authority is not transferable nor negotiable, especially where change is apparent. In fact, enemies of reconciliation (and they are many both within, in the region and in Diaspora) are waiting for such change so as to seize the opportunity to negate this critical, but budding process of reconciliation and with unquantifiable consequences. Secondly, the current reconciliation process is a function of our current levels of growth and thus development as it gives Rwandans hope for a better tomorrow, and one they can hold on to dearly. That, this growth has been evenly spread across our country, in the process uplifting one million compatriots out of poverty, is fundamental to our reconciliation, reversal of which would be catastrophic. Any perceived change, is bound to change not only the political governance of our country, but also economic. This as argued earlier, sends wrong signals to economic agents whose reaction feeds negatively into our economy, reversing our impressive economic growth trends registered for some time now and with it, our reconciliation process. This one; our reconciliation is critical to our political homework. It is averse to changes. To be continued…The writer is an economist and a financial expert.