Change with stability and continuity: A political homework. (Part XVII)

I have been writing these series that have run weekly over the last few months and they have generated overwhelming, as well as varying feedback. The readers of the column have shared their views, suggestions and concerns which are legitimate and deserve their due attention. I have aired my views on the current debate, making it clear that, these are my personal opinions as a concerned Rwandan. My opinions are drawn from the complex experiences of Rwanda’s past and present (both of which I understand pretty well). As development historians argue, “the past societal trends tend to recur, unless these are negated by other opposite dynamics and even so, over a period of time, usually two generations”. In other words, the adage that history repeats itself becomes validated by societal trends, that usually give rise to social construction, that is so subtle that, ignoring it, is fundamentally being simplistic, and the hard truth emerges later on anyway.A stone-cast convictionAs an informed Rwandan, I hold very dear to my opinion/conviction that, the best way forward for our country is to maintain/sustain our current political dispensation, and make the best of President Paul Kagame’s exemplary leadership to bear, for our country for more than the current term limits allows him (how many more years would be a subject of debate).Drawing deeply from my experience both at home and abroad, I am convinced beyond reasonable doubt that this is the best answer to our homeland. History will judge me for holding dear to this conviction and position.Normal Rwanda?Multiple readers of the previous series argued that Rwanda is now a normal country, and indeed able to wither future turbulences regardless of their nature, form, magnitude or timing. I strongly believe the contrary, and this argument needs to be qualified if you factor in our context. Whereas it is true that we have ushered in a new Rwanda, the vulnerability of our country to regress to the abnormal and very turbulent past is high at the stage at which we are now. For us, normalcy is a process that is merely less than ten years old.The earlier dates to 1994, were picking up pieces following the effects of war and the Genocide. In development discourse, we are out of past groom but not over it yet. Rwanda is near the dividing line into normalcy, but close to past groom that, chances of sliding back are quite high, should there be a serious political shock that changes our current political dispensation.This will certainly slide us back to the abnormal Rwanda we have had to live with, and in, for decades with consequences for generations to come. The edge to normalcy has to inform our political homework - sustainability.The assumptions of stable, normal and indeed turbulence free Rwanda is based on lack proper understanding of our context, and conceptualizing the same by factoring in a highly uncertain future. Failure to do so, leads to underestimation of the threats to our national fabric, but we cannot underrate the consequences subsequent.To put it differently especially for the Y-generation, for it seems, this is the group that may not fully conceptualize our context (understandably, our past may be blurred to them) and unfortunately, there are no objective history books for them to read and appreciate our horrific past, so as to comprehend our today, and be able to correlate our past with our present so as to contemplate possible future Rwanda.These trends cannot be seen in isolation, as they inform each other so much so that, extricating one from the other, simplifies a very difficult environment, which is dangerous for the future of our country.Thus, when I did argue that, our national unity and reconciliation (the centre piece of our identity as a country) is still in raw material form, this should be understood in context.Not doing so, leaves the unity process exposed to serious threats so much so that, many who have never believed in it, (especially many extremist/supremacists in Diaspora, who are haunted by their heinous past actions to their own) can hijack the process, reversal of which would be more catastrophic.This would in fact undo all that we gained at extremely high cost any country has paid in recent past. This would be faster than the time it has taken us to have come this far, this much.Given?What we have achieved as a country today is as a result of exemplary leadership by President Paul Kagame, working with the budding systems he has helped build. These systems/institutions are not only too young, but also too weak to stand serious shocks be it internal or external.As pointed out earlier, in development discourse, you either have strong leadership or you have strong institutions to sustain a country’s development. There are no grey areas in this developmental formula that defines/refines a development process.And so, in our case, we have weak institutions that are in their development stages both structurally as well as human capital. But we happen to be very lucky to have strong and committed leadership that has been tested and certified by both fate, and fame. These are facts of our current national outlook.What we see and have in our country today, is a product of highly coordinated efforts of different institutions and leaders not visible to the street analysts, but so efficient that, the results of these efforts are in public know.But we should not take this as given, for granted or guaranteed. The opposite could also have been true, as is the case with many African nation states that we all know. Ours is therefore antithesis of African political dispensation. We should maintain and sustain this at any cost, for we know what it is means not to have it. Abnormal Rwanda, is an experience of our history we cannot allow to repeat.New RwandaThat our country is out of its abnormalcy is not in doubt. As pointed earlier, we are only at the edge of normal Rwanda, and the dividing line between the new (normal) and old (abnormal) Rwanda is very thin indeed.This is not an event, but a process that, will take us time to usher normal Rwanda into a sustainable mode. Our political homework must take cognizance of this fundamental of development stage, or risk failing our home, with consequences as certain as our abnormal past.The signs of normalcy are many and imperially verifiable. From strong economic growth trends for last couple of years, is now internationally referenced to other developing economies.But nobody should assume that these impressive growth trends and indeed our future progress will be in a straight line. Such miraculous growth episodes are anchored on our strong economic governance systems that are in themselves in raw form, and not yet a culture we can subject to emotive changes.Our social sectors, from health to education, have all recorded impressive growth trends typical of a normal country, we are now into. They are also internationally referenced even to developed countries, where mutuelle de santé is specifically a success story that has eluded even some developed economies’ systems.Our comprehensive security for people and their properties is unique even by western standards. Which is why our forces have been called upon to provide security to other nations in need across our continent and beyond.In fact, our defence forces are rated by UN and various defence experts as the best in Africa, and most disciplined too. This is our national pride, and one that has made Rwanda one of the safest places to live in the world. We should not take this for granted – it informs our current home work, for most of us know, and experienced the opposite.All indicators of a new Rwanda with us today, have been acknowledged internationally, as success stories for others to learn from.Knowing our abnormal past, I am certainly sure, that changes in our political dispensation (which is the only causation of our development trends), will change the new Rwanda. And for worse.The crux of the matter is that, our new Rwanda, is as pointed earlier, at its formative stage, and too delicate to gamble with. We owe this to the exemplary leadership of President Kagame, and the mindset he imparted among us Rwandans. But one thing is to recreate a country from her abnormal state to normalcy disposition, the other thing is to sustain the normalcy dispensation created. Our homework will have to address the best way to sustain our new Rwanda, for the probability of regressing to abnormal Rwanda is quite high at this stage of our development.It is too early to gamble with a budding new Rwanda.To be continued…The writer is an economist and financial expert.