Change with stability and continuity: A political homework. Part XIV

A number of readers questioned what part of national systems I consider abnormal so much so that, if we got our homework wrong, our country would incur costs undefined and unquantifiable. Our country Rwanda is not another normal country in the strictest sense of the term. And except for the Y-generation who as pointed out earlier, may not understand our past context fully, for they did not live to see the abnormal Rwanda, X generation knows, and comprehends the abnormal Rwanda we have had with us for decades, and one that cost us one million compatriots for the whole world, to appreciate the abnormality of Rwanda. And although one can blame our abnormality on our colonial legacy of extreme divide and rule witnessed anywhere in Africa, for ours became a philosophy that was institutionalised by the ruling ‘elite’ and blessed by the Christian establishment like ‘a sacrament’ that was to define who was and was not to be Rwandan with all rights and privileges, such philosophy tore the unity of Rwandans from the middle, indeed from the centre heart of our country. This national abnormality facilitated genocide so much so that it was easy for some of our kind to slaughter babies like chicken for a party leave alone adults. If this is not abnormality of a nation, I don’t know what it is. But this informs our homework so much so that, a healing nation is not another country where one can experiment democratic niceties as an end in themselves. Our context and thus societal landscape is fragile, and no wonder that, only exemplary leadership by President Kagame, has brought us this much, this far. Others would have failed, by all measures of certainty. Unity and reconciliation: a raw material.In retrospect, our unity and reconciliation, designed to heal abnormal Rwanda, becomes a raw material, when one factors in change and continuity homework at stake. If we consider the fact that, the loss of one million of our compatriots in genocide implies that, literally a large percentage of our population lost a beloved one. And although no research has be done to ascertain the impact of healing process among this large part of our kind, except attitudinal observations in memorials and other social interactions which indicate deeper wounds, means that, our reconciliation process is, but work-in-progress. On one hand, if we consider that, Gacaca courts handled over two million cases of genocide perpetrators, also means that, a large part of our population has a guilt mark on their concience. These are facts of our national fabric that cannot survive ‘reverse political correctness’ of any form.Now, this is perhaps the critical part of ‘abnormal Rwanda’ which our exemplary leadership has no parallel pacific in the history of reconciliation. But such a situation is only sustainable if our change with sustainability home-work captures this process and sustains the same downstream our development process. And this is also one area, among many, exemplary leadership of President Kagame has been brought to bear, in way that has left many peace and reconciliation initiatives world over, a figment of the real world unity and reconciliation processes.This process is in its raw material form for now, and in the foreseeable future so much so that, any offsetting in balance of our current political dispensation would have catastrophic consequences to our society, which also means that, the change business at hand becomes no business except for prophets of doom. That wounds are still fresh 19 years down the road, is telling if one remembers what happens in every genocide, memorials we hold country wide every year in April. The loss of everything worth is too deep, and yet too dear, to atone soon. although a lot has been done to bring the strong divide into unity, nobody should underestimate the powers of evils on both sides of the divide. They are laying devils, and ghosts that can easily be awakened by an extremist on either side of the divide, that is yet to be seamless. The moderating force, has only been the exemplary leadership, that the two serious divide, have found unity of purpose, as long as this authentic leadership holds. The happy truth is that, President Kagame has been held as an authentic factor of our unity by both side of our ‘divide’ and we are really on course, without which suspicions and repercussions consequent would be with us today. The worry is not so much of our work-in-progress of unity and reconciliation process per se, or institutions that, in themselves would be overwhelmed by change in balance, as for the people who don’t believe in the process for both ‘lost’ their worth for the sake of the very unity we cherish today. I am not usually a pessimist, but for this I am ardent one. This is premised on the methodology President Kagame employed to bring this abnormal Rwanda to what it is now, a normal Rwanda especially with regard to unity and reconciliation. That he was able to persuade convincingly victims across board, to forego more in the past so as to get more of the future downstream, is a miracle in itself. This conviction, much as it has worked so far, is yet to settle as a process given that, the threats across boarders (reinforced especially by our geopolitical fluid environment as we know it) and in diaspora, where the ghosts of the divide have never winked at all. Laying ghostsThe other worry is that, the ‘victims’ can be more lethal than the historical perpetrator, if not tamed, and the abnormal Rwanda, will then live to its historical trade mark and trend. This is the quiet reality, that few would take courage to uphold in public, but which this change debate can only ignore at the peril of the most likely outcome. Tempting fate is never wise, ours would be unthinkable. This is not to stock fear here, but our unity and reconciliation narrative, is fundamental to our future unitary state, short of which, extremist on both sides of victim/perpetrator divide will awaken the ghosts that reigned our country in 1994, and indeed many years before, with unimaginable consequences. This therefore calls for strategic patience, which is again possible if the current order is sustained, for any change in the same, is a change to unknowns. Divisive optionsIn the previous article, I highlighted concerns of alternatives that are not alternatives to our current political dispensation. Numerous readers have argued that, any other alternative would divide RPF party in the middle first and foremost, be unacceptable to the yet to be seamless divide, and only serve to fundamentally reverse the enormous gains made so far, and at the highest cost paid in history of post-conflict countries. They thus assert that, this would in fact play into the hands of opportunistic oppositionists that have nothing to show except the tag their carry. They also argue that, negative forces (and they are many and active) see such alternatives as the best chance to rain havoc on every normalcy attained so far. They argue that, with President in competition they have no chance at all. Also that, any alternative will not only fail to fit in the larger than life shoes of President Kagame who has raised delivery bar too high to reach, but also that, such will need to show real steel to deliver, untenable scenario among our current crop of politicians as pointed out in the previous series. Which is why we real face a political homework whose solution in my opinion, and that of most readers is, not to gamble with an abnormal country, for whatever reason or motive, for they are bound to fail with all certainty or probability whichever way one chooses to view our present, by factoring our tomorrow. A planned change, not a hoped changeOur change with sustainability and continuity should therefore be planned for, and not hoped for, as some street idealists would wish. It also means that, as a people, we need to come to terms with the fact that, the best change for our context, is a change better carried forward, and managed with sobriety. The opposite would only trend our abnormal Rwanda.Beardshaw (2004) argues that, over 90 per cent change of good leadership in recent political economy, has had 90 per cent probability of change for worse. That ours is not a normal country to subject to hypothetic change to, is in almost all probability, likely to fail in these abysmal trends. This again puts to question our change with stability and continuity homework. Only pragmatic idealist can discount this probability, and only if such are alien to abnormal Rwanda. If one has grown in the realness of abnormal Rwanda, then change and continuity homework, puts to risk our unity and reconciliation process, more than it does to real sectors of our economy. God forbid.To be continued…The writer is an economist and a financial expert.nshutim[at]gmail.com