Rwanda’s optimism on fertility compelling

It is one of those rare coincidences that three EAC countries should share a statistic independent of each other. Rwanda and Kenya currently share a similar fertility rate of 4.6 children per woman. Burundi is in the same range of 4.6.The shared statistic perhaps may not mean much, except to remark the fact. But it draws attention to the two EAC member states, of which Tanzania’s fertility is 5.4 children per woman and Uganda’s 6.2.Despite the similarity or difference in the fertility of their women, the five member states share one certainty: that their populations will continue to grow rapidly and remain very youthful, and that continued investments in family planning are necessary in order to promote the potential social and economic benefits of a more balanced age structure.Let’s take the example of Rwanda and Kenya to take stock of the possibilities. The former for its dramatic achievements, the later for the blueprint it has just laid out for its future. Rwanda’s ambition is to bring the fertility rates down to three children per woman. The optimism towards attaining this goal is compelling.The 2010 demographic and health survey records that Rwanda’s fertility rate in the year 2005 as 6.1 children per woman. Today it is just over four children.The drop had to do with contraception use. Women in the reproductive age of between 15 to 49 years increased using modern contraception from 10 percent in 2005 to 45 percent currently.This means that contraceptive use more than tripled in just five years, growing by seven per cent annually. The average growth for Africa is below 1.6 per cent annually.Observers have described it as dramatic Rwanda’s drop in fertility rate and rise contraceptive use, crediting it to sustained political support and intensive expansion of services to underserved areas and people. The goal for three children per woman seems firmly on course.Kenya has just unveiled a new Policy on Population for National Development that it is banking on as a blueprint to deliver on its objective to curb rampant population growth.At its core, the policy aims to half Kenya’s fertility from 4.6 to 2.6 children per woman. Going by the facts, this is achievable one ginger step at a time.For instance, it is an established fact that the earlier a woman marries the more likely she is to have more children than the average.By raising the age of marriage from 20 to 23 years through persuasion, the dividend is that by marrying later one should expect to have fewer children by at least one.Among others, is the strategy to sensitize men and women to lower their preferred mean ideal number of four children to three.With intensive expansion of services across the board, more so to the underserved areas, there is no reason why Kenya should not succeed in its goal, especially with the apparent political will.This recipe is universal, and should work not only for Kenya, but for the EAC and Africa in general where rapidly growing populations are concentrated among youthful ages outpacing improvements in quality of life and testing governments’ capacities to provide basic health services, education, and jo Twitter: @gituram

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Rwanda’s optimism on fertility compelling