It’s 2012 and all eyes will be on Kenya

When I was much younger, I knew very little about Kenyan politics especially because the “professor of politics” Daniel Arap Moi continued to rule East Africa’s largest economy year after year without any signs of letting go. All one heard about Kenya was the beautiful cities of Nairobi and Mombasa which the more privileged peers loved to boast about having visited. Kenyan politics started catching my eye when the Moi days came to an end in 2002. The old man tried to ensure that Kenya’s oldest party, KANU, continued to hold power by nominating Uhuru Kenyatta as the party’s flag bearer. Unfortunately the wealthy son of Kenya’s first leader was no match to the formidable force of the Rainbow alliance. This got more interesting when Gidigidi Majimaji, a music duo, came up with their hit song ‘Unbwoggable’ (slang for unstoppable) pouring praises on the Rainbow alliance top dogs. Even the car accident that Mwai Kibaki suffered was not enough to stop him from being sworn in as president, a clear sign that indeed the winds of change were unbwoggable. However, like a house built on sand, the alliance that saw Kibaki into office soon developed huge cracks with ministers like Raila Odinga and Charity Ngilu becoming die hard opposition members even while still cabinet ministers. This is where Kenyan politics gets interesting. Politicians are known to change political allegiances more regularly than the cars they drive. When Kibaki lost a referendum to the Orange group the battle lines were clearly drawn. It soon became clear that the man who had just the other day engineered Kibaki’s victory was now vying for the top seat himself after what he claimed were broken promises. In 2007, the presidential campaigns had President Kibaki and his PNU up against Raila Odinga’s ODM whose campaign machine was headed by a five member team of Professor Anyang Nyongo, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Charity Ngilu and Najib Balala, aptly dubbed The Pentagon. Current vice president Kalonzo Musyoka was also in the race. On 23 December 2007, I boarded an Akamba bus from Kampala to the Tanzanian town Moshi via Nairobi. As we passed through Nairobi, the election mood was so high you could hardly see any billboard that was not having a politician’s face. At the Kenya-Tanzania border crossing of Namanga, I noticed a bus full of Asians from Kenya heading to Tanzania. It was easy to think that they were a touring Indian cricket team but actually I was told that they were Kenyan businessmen relocating to Tanzania in anticipation of violence during or after the elections. It was soon the case as the country that was once famed as the beacon of peace in the region erupted in violence that claimed over 1000 lives. The effect of the violence stretched the economies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern DRC which depend on the port of Mombasa for most of their imports. Personally, I was stuck in Tanzania for a couple of days as cross-border buses were unable to move in Kenya especially in the western part of the country where security was not guaranteed. As Raila Odinga claimed to have been robbed of victory, incumbent Mwai Kibaki was sworn in so quickly that the development is now some sort of urban talk. I often hear speakers at traditional introduction ceremonies beckoning someone to do whatever they are doing quickly as though they were swearing in Kibaki. When the dust settled, Raila agreed to share power with Kibaki largely because the violence had long diverted from anger over electoral fraud to ethnic cleansing of some communities. It is for this reason that some of the top Kenyan politicians are now frequent travellers to The Hague. Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and Tanzania all recently held their elections and now it is 2012, the year in which the Kenyans will go to the ballot to choose who should replace the old Makerere economist, Mwai Kibaki. The race for the top job has so far seen most of the prospective candidates strategising against Raila Odinga who is seen as a clear favourite to replace Kibaki. Depending on how the cases at The Hague go, the 2012 elections will be a must watch for many as we hope that the 2007 scenario is not repeated. Considering how vital Kenya is to the general health of the economies of the East African region it would be in all our interests that things go well during and after the election process. Email: ssenyonga@gmail.comBlog: www.ssenyonga.wordpress.comTwitter: @ssojo81