What declining number of Rwandans in agriculture means

The number of Rwandans with occupations in agriculture dropped by 5 percent over the last 10 years, from 72.7 per cent in 2012 to 67.8 per cent in 2022, according to the fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census data. The report of the census, which was conducted by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), was released on February 27, during Umushyikirano – the National Dialogue Council. It revealed a continuous shift from agricultural to non-agricultural occupations in the Rwandan labour market since 1978, and an increase in the percentage of non-agricultural occupations in the same period – with Rwandans having agricultural occupations going down from 92.5 per cent in 1978, to 67.8 per cent in 2022. ALSO READ: Senators tour districts to assess agriculture sector performance ALSO READ: Six key priorities the Ministry of Agriculture eyes to boost productivity As such, the share of the non-agricultural occupations among Rwandans rose from 7.5 per cent of all the employed Rwandans to 32.2 per cent over the last four decades. The census looked at, among other indicators, engagement of the working age population in agriculture and non-agriculture activities. Agricultural occupations, according to NISR, include market and non-market agricultural occupations carried out by any member of the household aged 16 years or above during the seven days preceding the census. ALSO READ: Agric output to double with Rwf31bn fertiliser subsidy – Ngirente The NISR Director General, Yussuf Murangwa, told The New Times that the rate of people engaged in agriculture is going down but agricultural productivity continues increasing. It is even good because as the number of people in agriculture decreases, they do other jobs, and those who are in agriculture have a high productivity, he said. Alfred Bizoza, an agricultural economist, said that the trend is positive. When the share of farmers is small in a country, Bizoza noted, it normally means that agriculture has become a profession where people are using modern technology under agriculture mechanisation. ALSO READ: PM lays out govt plans to contain fertiliser costs “Normally, in developed countries, you realise that the people carrying out agriculture account for between 3 and 5 per cent of the population, and they produce enough food to feed their countries, and export the surplus,” Bizoza said. He indicated that “with agriculture mechanisation, a machine operated by one person will plough a piece of land which you would employ about 100 people to till per day.” “As the number of people engaged in agriculture goes down, it means that they are going into other sectors. Those are young people who complete their studies, who are in the working age bracket,” he said, noting that they can engage in the services sector, and industry sector. Bizoza said that such a trend can be assessed by looking at the growth registered in other sectors such as services, is leading others in contributing to the country’s GDP. “As the trend decreases, it gives us plenty of opportunity for professional agriculture, such that the young people completing agricultural studies engage in the sector, instead of leaving farming to old men and women,” he said. This can help create off-farm jobs such as in the agricultural value chain such as in transportation, processing and retail. 77 percent females, compared to 58 males However, the report pointed out that the population engaged in agricultural occupations decreased at a slower pace between 2012 and 2022 (5-percentage points), compared to a registered decrease between 2002 and 2012 (15-percentage points). The results also show that the percentage of agricultural occupations is higher among females than males, as there were 77 percent of females engaged in agricultural activities compared to 58 percent of males in August 2022. “This indicates that females have more limitations of accessing to non-agricultural occupations compared to males,” the report reads in part. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of the employed population by branch of economic activity, the employment in the agriculture sector refers to those engaged in market-oriented agriculture (those whose products from agriculture are mainly sold or those who engaged in agriculture for pay). With such a definition, people engaged in subsistence agriculture were excluded. The census results showed that agriculture accounted for 53.4 per cent of all employed people, followed by trade (9 percent), construction (7 per cent), manufacturing (4.3 per cent), as well as transportation and storage (4.1 per cent). Other branches of economic activity comprised, each, less than four percent of total employment. Drop in contribution to GDP The agriculture sector’s contribution to Rwanda’s economy has been declining. According to 2021 statistics by NISR, the sector contributed 24 per cent of Rwanda's GDP, estimated at Rwf10,944 billion in 2021. The services sector was leading – it contributed 48 per cent of GDP, while the industry sector contributed 20 per cent. ALSO READ: Multi-billion agric plan to halve poverty level by 2024 In 2004, about two decades ago, agriculture was the top contributor to Rwanda’s economy as it accounted for 43 per cent of the GDP estimated at Rwf668.35 billion then, according to data from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning. This figure implies that Rwanda’s economy, as of 2021, increased by more than 10 times compared to the 2004 situation though the value of the Rwandan franc dropped over years, leading to a relatively reduced purchasing power. In 2004, the service sector was the second behind agriculture, accounting for 37.8 per cent of the GDP.

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What declining number of Rwandans in agriculture means