Leaked footage, violence raise fresh questions over Kinshasa's intentions

There is mounting opposition to the East African Community regional force deployed in eastern DR Congo, in November 2022, with a mandate of supporting the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes. Some analysts believe that Kinshasa might even expel the regional force, or exit the EAC which it joined in 2022. In the second round of protests in the Congolese city of Goma, on Monday, February 6, demonstrators accused the regional force of being ‘passive’ instead of fighting the M23 rebels. Emboldened by their political and military leaders, the demonstrators are increasingly threatening the regional force to leave the country if it does not fight the rebels. Soon after the February 4, extra-ordinary EAC Summit of Heads of State concluded, in Bujumbura, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi was captured on video confronting the commander of the regional force, Gen. Jeff Nyagah, in the presence of the Kenyan officer’s Commander in Chief, President William Ruto. A visibly threatening Tshisekedi told Gen. Nyagah not to favor the M23. Tshisekedi told Gen. Nyagah to fight the rebels or risk the wrath of the Congolese population. The Hot Mic history wont forget. Before departing Bujumbura President Tshisekedi tells Maj Gen Jeff Nyagah, Head of the EAC Force,the population can attack It would be unfortunate if the population were to attack you. You came here to help us,not to have problems. pic.twitter.com/80Sjcs36uN — Busingye Johnston (@BusingyeJohns) February 7, 2023 “Don’t favour the M23! It would be a shame if the [angry] population attacked you. You came to help us to solve a problem, not to be part of it. Pay attention to this, communicate to the population,” Tshisekedi told the Kenyan General. ALSO READ: Nine key resolutions from EAC leaders’ Summit on DR Congo crisis While the February 4 Summit called for dialogue and resolved that the security crisis in eastern DR Congo “is a regional matter that can only be sustainably resolved through a political process,” Kinshasa appears eager for a military solution as the only viable option. ALSO READ: Peace talks top priority for EAC force in Congo: Kenyan General A day after the EAC Summit, on Sunday, Congolese Vice Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Christophe Lutundula, released a statement saying that the “mandate of the regional force is, unequivocally, offensive.” Dialogue should not be ruled out “The possibility of dialogue should not be ruled out,” Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political scientist, and researcher, said. “First, the EAC regional force will not take offensive actions just because the DR Congo government wants them to. If they do so, against M23, what about the other several dozen armed groups?” Eastern DR Congo is home to more than 130 local and foreign armed groups. In April 2022, Congolese armed groups that participated in the first phase of dialogues in Nairobi, Kenya, aimed at finding lasting solutions to the insecurity in their country’s east pinpointed the presence and operations of foreign militia forces as a threat to peace in the region. The three notorious foreign armed groups in question are FDLR, a genocidal militia force that was formed by remnants of the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, Uganda’s ADF, and the Résistance pour un État de droit, or RED-Tabara, from Burundi. The threat posed by the latter is never given much attention by Kinshasa. ALSO READ: Belgian lawyer on why genocide ideology doesn’t dissolve three decades after dispersion of genocidaires Golooba-Mutebi noted that the EAC can only keep insisting on dialogue and refusing to take offensive action against M23 on behalf of the Congolese army. Monday’s protesters blocked roads, and vandalised shops and churches belonging to the Congolese Tutsi community which has always been the victim of hate speech and ethnic violence. “When the civil society and populations replace the government in place, that is a sign of bad or lack of governance,” said Amb. Joseph Mutaboba, Rwanda’s former envoy to the UN. The Congolese government has been accused of abandoning the regional mechanisms, in particular the Luanda agreement of November 2022. ALSO READ: Kenyatta calls urgent meeting as DR Congo situation worsens On January 30, citing security reasons, the Congolese government expelled three Rwandan officers, who worked in the headquarters of the regional force – a move the EAC “learned with concern,” because the officers enjoyed immunity and Kinshasa had agreed to their deployment. Four scenarios In view of the current atmosphere in DR Congo, Mutaboba predicted four “scenarios to not be surprised about in the event they likely happen.” First, he predicted that the Congolese government will issue another communiqué announcing that they are leaving the EAC. The other is the expulsion of EAC forces before they even fully deploy as convened; third is Kinshasa quitting the Luanda and Nairobi peace frameworks; and, fourth is the possibility of “war and chaos in the DR Congo and the region.” ALSO READ: Kagame: ‘Congo leaders cannot make Rwanda the scapegoat’ The Congolese government accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels in North Kivu – which Kigali categorically denies. For more than two decades, attempts to uproot foreign militias, especially the FDLR, have failed, due to DR Congo’s links with the genocidal group which has launched several attacks on Rwanda in the recent past, such as in 2019, when 14 civilians were killed in northern Rwanda. “There is zero chance of the government of the DR Congo sorting out the insecurity in the Kivu regions without the involvement of or assistance by its neighbours (Burundi, Uganda, Rwanda),” Golooba-Mutebi.

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Leaked footage, violence raise fresh questions over Kinshasa's intentions