I try not to be shocked by how quickly the world turns, but if you’d told me at the start of the year that the 50-year al-Assad dynasty would collapse with barely a whimper, I’d have laughed in disbelief. Why? Because I never imagined that Russia, Iran and other allies would let Bashar al-Assad's presidency crumble. I genuinely believed they’d back him to the hilt—whether with weaponry, manpower, or both. They did so in 2011 when Syria's civil war erupted, and I assumed they’d do it again. So, imagine my surprise as rebels took over city after city with no Russian missile strikes in sight. I waited, breath held, for Assad's army to launch a counteroffensive as the rebels advanced toward Damascus. When nothing happened, a thought struck me: if Assad can fall, who is truly safe? What makes his downfall so shocking is how deeply I’d bought into the narrative. Here’s what I mean: we’ve been fed this story that, unlike the selfish, hypocritical West, Eastern powers will always stand by their allies—as long as they serve as bulwarks against American influence. But when it came to Assad, Moscow offered only asylum. Not a finger was lifted to save their erstwhile ally. Despite the fact that al-Assad had been a good friend to both Powers. There’s a powerful lesson here. For me, at least, it’s clear: no one is coming to save us. We must save ourselves. Rwandans learned this the hard way in 1994 when the world stood by as we teetered on the brink of destruction. Our survival hinged on Rwandans themselves stopping the slaughter and beginning the monumental task of rebuilding a national identity—Ubu-Nyarwanda—that genocidaires sought to erase. The Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) and the government it leads took key lessons from 1994. First, build and consolidate a national identity that cannot be shaken. Second, create a security apparatus that ensures the safety of Rwandans and the nation’s sovereignty. Third, develop an economy that generates wealth for as many people as quickly as possible. And to achieve all this, establish a political system designed to support these overarching goals. Understanding the “whys” makes the “hows” straightforward. Take Rwanda’s defense measures at its border with DR Congo as an example. The FDLR, a genocidal militia supported by the DRC government, represents an existential threat to Rwanda. Their aim is clear: reignite the genocide, destroy the economy, and erase the very idea of Rwanda. Faced with this, the Government of Rwanda had two choices: wait for someone else to address the FDLR or act decisively. The first option has proven futile. Since 1994, not a single DR Congo government—Mobutu, Kabila I, Kabila II, or Tshisekedi—has eradicated the FDLR. Instead, they’ve armed and supported them. International forces like MONUSCO, despite being on the ground since 1999, have also failed to dismantle this threat. And though the FDLR is an internationally recognized terrorist group, global powers—both Western and Eastern—have done little to neutralize it. Why? Because they don’t fundamentally care. And honestly, why should they? Our lives are but fleeting thoughts to them. Remember, it wasn’t an international force that repelled the FDLR in 2019 when they attacked Kinigi. It was the RDF. Meanwhile, the “international community” responded with travel advisories, labeling gorilla trekking in Musanze “risky and unadvised.” Today, Rwandans, and guests of Rwanda, enjoy the beauty of the country in absolute peace. They can go up the Virunga mountains, peer into the DRC without worrying that the chaos on the other side of the border will ‘touch them’. Let’s be honest here, the ‘preventive and defensive’ posture that Rwanda has taken has everything to do with the quiet we enjoy over here. Interestingly enough, instead of appreciating Rwanda’s understandable and logical security posture, the Powers are haranguing us. What will they have us do? Hope that our ‘allies’ and ‘friends’ will save us from FDLR? How did that work for al-Assad? His failure to build necessary state capacity, with or without the help of his allies, sealed his fate. Perhaps he should have heeded Viscount Palmerston’s famous words: “In politics, there are no permanent enemies, no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” He woke up this month and realized they no longer had ‘interest’ in his stay in power. We, as Rwandans and as Africans, cannot make the same miscalculation. Our survival depends on our ability to stand alone when necessary. Our very lives are at stake. The author is a socio-political commentator.
