Donald Trump’s recent election as U.S. president will not directly alter this year’s summit agenda, but it could affect the implementation of any agreements when he is inaugurated in January 2025, experts at 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) have said. U.S. President-elect Trump's transition team has prepared executive orders and proclamations on withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, the New York Times reported on Friday. During his tenure, Trump had previously pulled the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, fulfilling his promise to withdraw from the global pact. His successor, President Joe Biden, signed the US back into the agreement in 2021. The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. ALSO READ: COP29: What is Rwanda's main agenda in Baku? As the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China, a US withdrawal from the pact would have huge consequences for any targets agreed upon at COP29. Last year, the U.S. produced an average of 12.9 million barrels of crude oil per day, breaking a previous global record in 2019, media reported. Trump has also regularly questioned whether climate change is real and downplayed its effects. Trump overshadows COP29 The global summit or COP29 has been overshadowed by the re-election of Trump, who has expressed his intention to walk out of the landmark Paris Agreement for the second time. He is also likely to reduce the US’s carbon-cutting commitments critical in the transition to net zero, ALjazeera reported. The US delegation will participate in the talks but will be unable to make any clear financial commitments as Trump is set to take office in January. ALSO READ: Why Rwanda needs global “Loss and Damage Fund” “There is no denying that another Trump presidency will stall national efforts to tackle the climate crisis and protect the environment, but most U.S. state, local, and private sector leaders are committed to charging ahead,” said Dan Lashof, the Director of World Resources Institute. “And you can count on a chorus of world leaders confirming that they won’t turn their back on climate and nature goals,” he added. Further, analysts said Trump’s climate scepticism poses a major concern for the African continent.They say his re-election raises fears of a repeat exit. This year, the UN-led talks are focused on agreeing to the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) – a climate finance target that countries in the Global South say should see them receive at least a trillion dollars annually from those most responsible for climate change. ALSO READ: What Rwanda expects from COP29 in Azerbaijan However, the COP process might lose the world’s most powerful government and a major source of finance to lower-income, climate-vulnerable countries, if Trump withdraws from the Paris Agreement again. Climate change-denying Trump cast a long shadow over the opening of the COP29 climate summit in Baku, where the seismic US election result has made the task of negotiating a meaningful finance deal an awful lot harder. But Mohamed Adow, Founder and Director of the Power Shift Africa campaign group, said that shouldn’t put off those attending to COP29. “Only an ambitious new finance goal in Baku will protect the current climate momentum from a potentially disastrous Trump presidency.” ‘Climate transition will happen anyway’ According to Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Director of UNFCCC, the result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. “Standing with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a fast-moving world,” he noted, adding that clean energy technologies will continue to outcompete fossil fuels. Figueres was convinced this transition will happen, not just because clean energy technologies are healthier, faster, cleaner and more abundant, but because they undercut fossil fuels where they are at their weakest. Raila Odinga, Former Prime Minister of Kenya and candidate for Chair of the African Union Commission (AUC), insisted that climate negotiations at COP29 was a perfect opportunity for the US to step up and be a global steward of the planet. “At COP29, the US must lead from the front, and support the delivery of ambitious grants-based and highly concessional climate finance to the trillions of dollars required to meet the adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries and compensate for losses of damages in a timely and transparent manner,” he said in a press statement. Odinga asserted that actions of the U.S. on climate change at home and globally will shape how Africa, a continent that is least responsible for the climate crisis yet suffering most from climate impacts, will navigate its own development path, delivering energy access to over 600 million people who are without electricity access today. His call for US leadership in climate action was further underscored by Joyce Banda, Former President of Malawi, who warned that the outcome of the US election could have far-reaching consequences for the world's climate future. “Efforts to fight against and mitigate climate change effects on the world, and developing countries in particular hang in the balance. As a global superpower, we expect the US to do the right thing for the sake of the world and generations to come,” she said. The nations that signed the Paris deal are supposed to submit new plans by mid-February. If the world’s biggest economy isn’t contributing, it could send a signal to opponents of stringent climate action in China, India or Europe to do less, experts say.
