What could Trump’s second presidency mean for Africa?

A week after Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, Africa is grappling with the prospects of what the Republican’s second term could mean for the continent. His win over Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday, November 5, drew immediate congratulations from African leaders, with President Paul Kagame rallying for “win-win ties.” Other African leaders including Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa echoed similar sentiments in congratulatory messages. ALSO READ: World leaders congratulate Trump on 'historic' victory Yet, many observers believe Trump’s foreign policy will prioritise transactional relationships and shift away from multilateral partnerships, with aid, trade, and climate agreements now unpredictable. Trump’s focus, they warn, could be limited to how Africa fits within his broader geopolitical objectives, especially concerning his rivalry with China. According to Andrew Mold, Acting Director of the sub-regional office for East Africa at UNECA, the Trump administration is likely to bring in quickly high tariffs on imports from China, and also on imports from the rest of the world in the region of 20 percent. “However, I suspect they will not impose tariffs that high as it will antagonise all the US's trading partners at once - and Trump will want to keep on good terms with partners like India. All this has uncertain meanings for the African continent, but I would highlight two potential outcomes,” Mold told The New Times in an exclusive interview. He explained that Africa exports compromise principally on raw commodities (as much as 80 percent of all exports). These, he maintained, are unlikely to be impacted by the US tariff increases. “It would be unwise to impose tariffs on inputs into US industry or on imported foodstuffs or beverages like coffee or cacao, as it would increase inflation across the board and raise costs for the industry. I suspect that the Trump administration will focus on tariffs on finished manufactured goods. So Africa is less likely to be affected by this score.” “However, the continuation of AGOA is another issue that needs consideration. In principle, this was going to be renewed by Congress next year. At this stage, I don't know what a republican dominated Senate and House of Representatives will mean on this score. This will be of concern for countries like Kenya, which export a significant amount of textiles under AGOA (in the region of $400 million a year). That said, I would stress that for the continent as a whole, the volume of manufactured exports going to the US market is very small, and it won't have major consequences.” The AGOA, first enacted in 2000, provides African countries with duty-free access to the US market for specific products. ALSO READ: US says plans underway to improve AGOA Trump, known for his aversion to multilateral agreements, may view AGOA as leverage to negotiate more advantageous bilateral deals, risking the existing framework, warned Mold. Uncertainties ahead Mold stressed that there are a lot of uncertainties around what will happen. “If the last Trump administration is anything to go by, there may be quite a difference between what is declared and what happens in practice. For the African continent, the most important thing is to have a clear idea about how to adapt its own strategy in the face of a possible global trade war between China, the EU, and the US.” Mold argues that doubling down on continental integration, through the rapid implementation of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), should be the first response. He believes that the African market is already the leading market for many African economies in our region. Uganda, for instance, sends around (40-50) percent of its exports to the continental market. “At a time of great uncertainty in the global economy, it makes sense for the continent to come together and leverage the full market on its own doorstep - the continental one. My final observation is that at the moment, this is all speculation....we don't yet know how things will play out. But in any case, African governments must try to anticipate some of these changes in the global trading environment, and make policy adjustments accordingly...” Mold shares similar sentiments with Vianney Shumbusho, a policy expert based in Kigali, who reiterated that Trump is likely to maintain his “America-first” approach. “But there is also another angle of the discussion where we could see a different second Trump compared to his first term in office.” US aid to Africa, currently about $8bn annually, could face cuts under Trump, according to Shumbusho, especially programs like PEPFAR (the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), which forms a significant part of US aid. Vaccine programs, HIV/AIDS programs, and reproductive health programs are among those at risk. Climate scepticism Further, analysts said Trump’s climate scepticism poses a major concern for the continent. He previously withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, and his re-election raises fears of a repeat exit. The US election result comes as the UN Climate Talks, COP29, are due to get underway in Baku on Monday. “Actions of the United States on climate change at home and globally will shape how Africa, a continent that is least responsible for the climate crisis yet suffering most from climate impacts, will navigate its own development path, deliver energy access to over 600 million people who are without electricity access today,” noted Raila Odinga, former Kenyan Prime Minister and candidate for Chair of the Africa Union Commission. He added; “Climate negotiations at COP29 in Baku, coming on the back of US elections, is a perfect opportunity for the US to step up and be a global steward of the planet. At COP29, the US must lead from the front, and support the delivery of ambitious grants-based and highly concessional climate finance to the trillions of dollars required to meet the adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries and compensate for losses of damages in a timely and transparent manner.” Liban Mugabo, an economist and policy expert says the impact may depend on how the country aligns with US strategic interests and economic priorities. “Rwanda’s stability, economic growth, and strategic location in East Africa could make it an attractive partner for US investment and security cooperation,” Mugabo said, adding that Trump’s election is monumental. There are two sides of the coin, according to Mugabo. On Trade and Investment, he said “Trump’s protectionist stance could potentially impact trade relations with Africa. There are concerns about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows eligible African countries to export certain goods to the US duty-free. “Trump previously indicated he wouldn’t renew AGOA when it expires in 2025, and his campaign pledge of a 10 percent universal tariff on foreign goods could make African exports less competitive on the US market.” Reacting to the prospects of foreign aid, Mugabo pointed out that Trump's previous administration proposed significant cuts to foreign aid, which could affect US assistance to African countries. While Congress blocked these cuts during his first term, a stronger Republican majority in Congress might make such reductions more feasible. However there is a silver lining, Mugabo stressed. “I believe that this second Trump administration might take a more “transactional, realistic and pragmatic” approach to Africa. This could potentially lead to more business-focused relationships and less emphasis on what we view as “preaching” on cultural issues” Equally possible, he maintained, “Trump’s administration may continue to view Africa through the lens of strategic competition with China. This could lead to increased US investment and engagement in Africa as a means to counter Chinese influence on the continent. This competition could end up benefiting Africa.” Trump’s victory could also have other geopolitical consequences for Africa, according to analysts. The Biden administration has supported two permanent seats for Africa on the United Nations Security Council, but observers argue that with Trump’s disregard for multilateral institutions, Africa’s long standing aspiration for UN Security Council reforms may face new obstacles.

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What could Trump’s second presidency mean for Africa?