Proper statistics make sustainable development a possibility

As the world population continues to grow each year, pressure on the existing natural resources continues. It has been argued that, due to population growth, competition has become stiffer for the finite global resources. Due to such pressures, some researchers have argued that population increase should stimulate new idea’s in innovations; which, as a result, will lead to further growth. However one should question how sustainable that growth is, especially seen in tandem with the fact that populations are growing and resources depleting. This type of question leads us to the only tool that can, and has helped, nations answer such questions. Statistics. With proper statistics, a policy maker is able to balance the exploitation of existing natural resources without compromising the needs of the future generations. There had been various population growth theories advanced. The Reverend Thomas Malthus, a population theorist, in his studies, forecast future danger if the world’s population continued to grow unchecked. On other hand Ester Boserup, who has been called the ‘anti-Malthus’, saw population growth as an incentive that would initiate innovation and competition in agricultural production; thereby multiplying the existing output. The competing theories have triggered arguments around the globe, where economists and other social scientists tried to test the validity of both approaches. However, there hasn’t been a formal agreement that harmonizes the two theories due to differences in population characteristics and development levels. While some countries are encouraging higher growth rates others are trying to curb them. Though many theorists have tried to suggest various approaches to deal with this conundrum, there has been lack of a strong statistical base that would facilitate the measurement of the extent to which natural resources are being exploited and their distribution. This has led to poor decision making, where most policy makers rely on estimations which are not grounded in scientific research; hence making un-informed decision, leading to the overexploitation of natural resources. Out of desperation, many countries have adopted drastic development plans with a view of stimulating economic growth and enhancing living standards of their respective populations, however for some countries, it has ended in doom and gloom due to the poor planning resulting from poor statistics. The Government of Rwanda has adopted various approaches for a national sustainable development through its medium development plan, the Economic Development and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) . The Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy aims to, among others, to improve the health status of the Rwandese population while reducing the total fertility rate which is currently 6.1 to 4.5 children per woman by 2012. The Environment and Natural Resources Strategic Plan (ENRSP), articulates the main priorities and strategies to be undertaken in the Environment and Natural Resources Sector over the period 2009-2013, where the overall objective of the sector strategy is to develop sustainable capacities to ensure that environment and natural resources are utilized and managed productively in support of sustainable national development in line with the EDPRS targets and Vision 2020 aspirations. Though the Government has well structured plan that, in long run, will lead the country to sustainable development, there is a need for a statistics system that will measure, monitor and evaluate the progress through a scientific approach. It is in this regard that ministries, local governments and other potential stakeholders in the development of Rwanda should devise ways of supporting the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda in hiring knowledgeable and competent statisticians to embark on the challenging task of creating a statistical data base, researching and carrying out surveys as well as reviewing the existing important documents and linking them up with the current development agenda. This in turn will help national planners and other development partners make informed decision based on scientific results, which will improve projects management and resources allocation procedures hence leading the country to the Promised Land, of prosperity, without compromising the needs of the future generation. Please send your comments on www.rscbl@yahoogroups.com