Last week, it emerged that the closure of schools in 2020 for about 7 months might cost much more than was thought. The World Bank estimated that the present value of the economic losses to Rwanda may reach $55 billion. The economic losses are derived from estimates on the present value of lifetime earnings for all affected students. Like in most social challenges, economic losses will be more deeply felt by disadvantaged students as students whose families are less able to support out-of-school learning, will face larger learning losses than their more advantaged peers. Among the challenges experts fear could stem from this affecting learning outcomes include completion rates, grade repetition as well as productivity of the learners. Some early projections and estimates suggest that the students in grades 1-12 affected by the closures might expect approximately 3 per cent lower incomes over their lifetimes due to lower education attainment and lower acquisition of skills. This comes at a time when Rwanda is working to improve learning outcomes as well as ensure that the education system is fit for purpose. In 2018, the World Bank produced the Human Capital Index whereby Rwanda scored 38 out of 100. This means that a child born in Rwanda today will be 38 per cent as productive as he or she could be if they had full education and health services. As education sector stakeholders stay up at night trying to find ways students across the country can resume school and pick up where they previously left off, much more effort should go into bridging the emerging challenges. This will ensure that gains made in recent years are not eroded and that the projected losses can be trimmed. While the challenges emerging from the pandemic are likely to be felt years after it has long been subdued, recovery efforts should also go into aspects such as correcting the damage done during the pandemic’s reign.
