It may seem surprising given the ravages of the pandemic around the world, but there’s much optimism how Africa will fare post-Covid-19, mainly from cautious African observers. This is evident in a headline like “The economic resilience of African countries offers a template for growth in a post-Covid-19 era” by Landry Signé, author of the book, Unlocking Africa’s Business Potential. There are several such headlines, including by the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development, Raila Odinga, hopeful that “Africa will rise after Covid-19, but it must rethink its future”. Their messages are the same in outlook: That, while the full effects of the virus remain to be seen, African countries represent tremendous economic potential. They generally observe that economic resilience will depend on policymakers adopting pro-growth and pro-poor policies focused on productivity, income, demand, and inclusion, and on how they implement robust competition policies in markets and industries in order to unlock economic potential and reduce barriers to growth. Though their observations sound like a rehash of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) objectives, it appropriately emphasises the potential when trade in the AfCFTA starts running. It is one of those realities of the pandemic that it forced a delay in the start of the continental trade that is scheduled to begin this July 1st. In the meantime, it may seem Africa is doing something right given the low number of infections and fatalities, though, admittedly, the continent could still bear the brunt of the virus. One analysis in The Conversation holds this happy view. It chides the United States and Britain’s handling of the pandemic vis-à-vis regions like Africa, as may be gleaned from its triumphant headline, which reads: “COVID-19 has blown away the myth about ‘First’ and ‘Third’ world competence.” However, the World Health Organisation’s projections this week that, unless something is done, the virus could infect more than 200 million in Africa makes it urgent why we should not take such a headline too seriously. Perhaps it would be more interesting to know why Africa so far seems comparatively less ravaged by the virus. Another analysis in The Conversation has looked at the reasons. Its headline contradicts the previous one though no less telling, declaring “there is no global south exceptionalism”. This analysis seeks to explain why, as some have wondered, we aren’t hearing about the people in the global south who are the usual far-away victims of epidemics. It notes that early hopes that warmer climates might mitigate SARS-CoV-2 have been largely overturned by counter-examples, such as Singapore where warm weather and rapid spread coincide. This coronavirus is new, so pre-existing immunity in some regions is not a factor either. It suggests two reasons why we have not been reading more about the pandemic in the global south. First, it is occurring later in regions in the south, as the case of Africa demonstrates. And second, we may not have been paying attention to the trends. When one looks at any map of COVID-19 cases over time, the pattern is clear through to the middle of March – China was hit first, followed by its neighbours, then Iran, Western Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States. The maps show the deaths we are seeing now are following two to six weeks later in the pattern. This pattern almost exactly overlays the map of global air travel (see picture). Infectious disease modellers have known for decades that the spread of flu viruses is predicted by patterns of air travel. With COVID-19, countries with high volumes of air travel with China were affected first, and then it spread from those countries to the others with which they have the most air links. For instance, the epidemic on the US west coast appears to have been seeded by a SARS-CoV-2 strain from China, whereas in New York City the predominant viruses are related to the slightly different strains circulating in Italy. Notable on the map of international air travel is the very small number of flights to Africa. This may explain why, in addition to responses in the continent including lockdowns and social distancing, the numbers of infections and deaths remain low. It is however not all good news. While there is worry about not having enough ventilators, it is reported that at least ten countries in Africa don’t have a single ventilator. Some of the others that have them are probably no better, including the Central African Republic which has only three ventilators and Liberia with six working machines. As the New York Times more dramatically put it, South Sudan, a nation of 11 million, has more vice presidents (five) than ventilators (four).
