The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the global economy will witness sharp negative growth in 2020 when the institution releases its economic outlook next week, affecting at least 170 countries as a result of COVID-19. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF Managing Director said in an opening speech ahead of the Spring Meetings next week that the world will record negative economic growth, and no country will be spared. “The bleak outlook applies to advanced and developing economies alike. This crisis knows no boundaries. Everybody hurts,” she said on Thursday. This comes a few weeks after the Fund declared that the world economy had entered into a recession, asking for quick interventions to turn around economies. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF Managing Director. / Net Just three months ago, the IMF said they expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of its member countries in 2020. Today, the institution said the number has been turned on its head. “We now project that over 170 countries will experience negative per capita income growth this year,” Georgieva noted. Containment measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus have taken a substantial hit on the world economy with retail, hospitality, transport, and tourism hit harder. In most countries, the majority of workers are either self-employed or employed by small and medium-sized enterprises. Georgieva said these businesses and workers are especially exposed. And just as the health crisis hits vulnerable people hardest, she noted, the economic crisis is expected to hit vulnerable countries hardest. The IMF chief expects emerging markets and low-income nations—across Africa, Latin America, and much of Asia— to be at high risk given the few resources at their exposure. These countries are exposed to the ongoing demand and supply shocks, drastic tightening in financial conditions, and some may face an unsustainable debt burden. In the last two months, portfolio outflows from emerging markets were about $100 billion— more than three times larger than for the same period of the global financial crisis, IMF said. At the same time, commodity exporters are taking a double blow from the collapse in commodity prices. And remittances—the lifeblood of so many poor people—are expected to dwindle. IMF estimates the gross external financing needs for emerging markets and developing countries to be in the trillions of dollars, and they can cover only a portion of that on their own. This could leave residual gaps in the hundreds of billions of dollars. “They urgently need help,” Georgieva insisted. The IMF predicts that if the pandemic fades in the second half of the year, thus allowing a gradual lifting of containment measures and reopening of the economy, the global economy would recover partially in 2021. However, there is tremendous uncertainty around the outlook. The global economy could get worse depending on many variable factors, including the duration of the pandemic. The IMF said there is some $1 trillion available in lending capacity to respond to their members’ emergency financing requests. The organisation’s Executive Board agreed to double access to emergency facilities, which could allow them to meet the expected demand of about $100 billion in financing. Lending programmes have already been approved. Rwanda is among the first few countries to receive emergency financing from the IMF. The country received some $109 million to respond to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Other countries that have received funding include Kyrgyz Republic, Madagascar, and Togo.
