Last week, President Salva Kiir and former vice president Riek Machar vowed to form a transitional government of national unity by mid-February 2020. This promise could finally be it, heralding the end to the more than five years of civil strife in South Sudan. The avowal follows the 100-day delay in the deadline in November this year to allow redress of concerns that included security guarantees and integration of the opposing forces into a national army. The concerns will now not particularly be a hindrance. Speaking to reporters after talks with Machar in Juba last week, Kiir was affirmative about the way forward: “We said that after 100 days we must form the government of national unity. If the arrangements are not complete, we shall form a transitional government of national unity to implement the outstanding issues.” He added: “The ceasefire will continue to hold and no one from us is willing to go back to war.” There have been too many broken agreements between the two protagonists, and we have heard such pronouncements about ceasefire before. This one, however, feels a bit different. It is symbolic that February 2020 comes at the juncture we are leaving this decade onto the next. The coming decade could be the one peace reigns in South Sudan and the country prospers. Therefore, if the promise for unity government pans out, it will be a most appropriate New Year present to mould the peace dividend. Interestingly, though, a semblance of this peace is already being celebrated in the country. One South Sudanese explained to the Chinese news agency Xinhua how he has allowed his young family to return home from Kampala, Uganda, to spend the festive season. This was because, he said, citizens are no longer worried about insecurity as it used to be in the past. This is evidenced by the many families returning home after lengthy stay abroad. The sentiment was echoed by others speaking to Xinhua, expressing hope for long term stability in their country after the latest agreement between their two warring leaders. The conflict began in 2003 after President Kiir conducted a major purge of hundred generals and other senior leadership, including the dismissal of his then vice president Riek Machar over power wrangles. Machar went on to lead the breakaway Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM IO) to dislodge Kiir, resulting in the five-year bloody civil war. Since then, almost 4.5 million people have been forced from their homes, more than a third of the country’s population. The displacement has been accelerated by resultant economic woes and drought, including the raging violence and dire food shortages. Roughly 2.3 million refugees fled into neighbouring countries. An estimated 1.9 million people are internally displaced. The war has resulted in a dire humanitarian crisis. More than half of the country’s population of around 12 million is estimated to be severely food insecure. Healthcare facilities have been destroyed and an estimated 3.9 million people needed healthcare in early 2019. The education system has been disrupted and about 2.8 million children (more than 70 per cent of school-aged children) have lost access to educational services. Ending the conflict and building the nation is imperative. Though there have been many broken deals, the avowal to form a government of national unity early in the New Year is encouraging. A section of the citizenry is similarly heartened. “Following the recent face-to-face meeting between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar,” a citizen told Xinhua, “we are confident there will be no more chaos in the country.” The sense of confidence is genuine, but one hopes the chap and his compatriots are not disappointed. It was under the pressure from the United Nations, the United States and countries in the region that the two leaders signed the revitalized agreement (RARCSS) to form a unity government. Now it is upon them to do more and blow on the embers of the February promise into the realisation of the goal that the RARCSS aimed. The effort will be for all of us in the region. A stable South Sudan can only pull its weight in national as well as regional development. For countries in the regional, therefore, the effort is self-interested stewardship of a country in trouble. I have observed here before how optimists such as myself remain steadfast that the revitalised agreement will work. Now, signs firm our confidence that this likely is the time. Let’s wish South Sudan a peaceful New Year and a decade with many happy returns. The views expressed in this article are of the author.
