If we accept traditional dating methods, the earth’s climate has cycled through warm and cold periods for millions of years [National Geographic]. Cycle periods of 100,000 and 400,000 years are partly attributed to the changing orbit of the earth around the sun (expanding and contracting between more circular and more elliptical paths). Currently, we are in a warm period and we might conclude that the climatic changes we see at present are merely aberrations to these long-term cycles. However, when long-term carbon dioxide changes are plotted alongside long-term temperature changes the conclusions are alarming. Warm and cold periods correlate very well with high and low carbon dioxide concentrations respectively. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has risen sharply since the industrial revolution in the 19th century. This implies a corresponding massive temperature rise, together with related effects such as increased storm severity, rising sea levels, and drought. The effect on Society A Pentagon Report warns that climate change may lead to global catastrophe costing millions of lives. The report predicts that “abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy” and concludes that “disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life”. It envisages European conflicts over failing supplies of food and water, flooding of Japanese coastal cities, conflicts between India, Pakistan and China over rivers and arable land, and floods of refugees from Mexico and the Caribbean. The report further states that, although this scenario is not the most likely, nevertheless, it “is plausible”. To back this up, the UN reports that up to 50 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2010, bearing in mind that 40 per cent of the world’s population live within 60 miles of the coast. For example, a 1m sea level rise would submerge a substantial part of Bangladesh. The Stern Report says “climate change will affect the basic elements of life (water, food production, health and the environment). Hundreds of millions of people could be affected by coastal flooding”. Contact: findmugabe@yahoo.com
