The US election season is finally over. It is not the first nor will it be the last that will be a very acrimonious contention, but it is one of the more polarising elections in recent history. There are several reasons why the world (including Rwanda) needs to watch what’s going on within the American domestic political situation, particularly now with their populist president-elect. By the end of the Cold War, it was assumed that the only form of acceptable government was the American model – so much so that there was even a popular book about that called ‘The End of History’ by Francis Fukuyama.’ However, this latest election shows a drastically changing political landscape with social media and popular culture providing doubts that some of the greatest American presidents would never stand a chance in today’s climate. Neither Abraham Lincoln nor Franklin Delano Roosevelt would have been able to go through the first part of the electoral process due to their social awkwardness. It is easy to forget that the American process that is now being used was originally designed for an electorate that was 100 times smaller than the population it is servicing now and within a much smaller landmass, and a single time zone. The 2016 election went much further negatively and in different antagonistic directions with far different results than most analysts had ever predicted. To capture contemporary feelings of the majority of Americans is to paraphrase a comedian from the Nixon/Kennedy election: “my considered opinion of Clinton versus Trump is that neither can win”. While this has been one of the most contentious elections ever, most Americans are very happy it is now over. But, what about the other 7 billion of us who do not live in the United States? After all hegemonic power that strong means that regardless of where in the world we are, American influence can be overpowering so what happens does matter (in a “fair world” we would all have a vote in the American election). The winner is hardly an unknown figure as over the years there have been numerous biographies and autobiographies written by Donald Trump. When I was completing my dissertation for my MBA (about branding for real estate developers), I bought and studied all of the books that I could on him until I acquired 16 of books written by and about him. For insight we may need to look at what kind of businessman he was. Since he has never held office before, nor served in government (something unprecedented in modern American politics), he will be approaching the office as a businessman. And, businessmen view the world with a profit and loss perspective: therefore, things that do not benefit in fiscal terms may not be considered with as much weight as a career politician. Over the years, he has always looked out for his own interests (as his father did), and doing what was necessary for his own profit. At times this was at the expense of investors and partners; with numerous examples of those actions. Always declaring ‘victory’, and being a winner. Positive spin, regardless of the outcome was the norm of the brand and the business. So, expect more of that type of behaviour: positive spin at the expense of others. Born into wealth he learned the value of getting things handed to him (while working hard) and then taking all the credit. He’s also an expert at leveraging and being able to get much of what he wants without paying for it (no money down property and business deals to a low cost presidential race). His character also indicates bullying and an ability for stretching the truth and hyperbolic statements (with plenty of acronyms). There are additional disheartening facts about the president-elect that are not disputed: he has been forced to defend his family’s practice of discrimination against African-Americas. Trump has disparaged various groups along ethnic, religious, gender, age and nationality (amongst others) over the years in various roles as an entertainer, businessman and politician. The good news is that, as successful businessman, he has been a master delegator, and that is expected to continue to be the norm. So, important positions for the world to watch are who he’ll delegate to: Secretary of State and the Ambassador to UN (cabinet level appointment). The others to watch include the head of East Africa USAID and the US Military General. There will be a reshuffling of the world order, and relative strength of America will continue to decline (but that is projected to be a relative decline). The overall, or aggregate, strength will continue to be omnipotent. However, if (as promised) the country begins to continuously look inward it will leave other regions on their own (and, that along with Brexit seems to be the trend). On the plus side, he has had a tendency to do anything to win, then after winning become much more conciliatory to the opponents that he has just pummeled. So, was it just bluster and bluffing to win is a question that time will tell. While Trump’s Republicans are now in control of the Senate and Congress, the methodologies employed by Trump mean that he may have difficulty getting things done as he had alienated most of the career politicians of every party. That means that regions such as East Africa will have less American influence and with power vacuums competing interests will move to fill them. Therefore, the need for regional partnerships and local organic economic growth (from within) is more important than ever. The East Africa Community can continue to grow becoming more important as a potential shelter against the changing winds of European and Asian influences. This also reinforces the need for Rwanda to be able to deal with these influences independently and with strength. Consequently, continued strong leadership is more imperative than ever to ensure Rwanda’s rightful place within the community of nations, one of a strong, independent peer. The writer is a Canadian scholar currently working as an associate professor at a university in Japan. He has conducted regular visits to Rwanda and has delivered public lectures at the University of Rwanda and at the Kigali Independent University.
