Brexit's lesson to EAC lies deeper in history of civilisation

As the reality set in to a number of “leave” voters soon after Britain’s European Union exit referendum, there’s now anxiety and regret — amusingly dubbed “Bregret” — as the value of the Sterling Pound has dropped and global markets wobbled. But it is testament to globalisation that the implication of United Kingdom’s exit from the EU continues to hold the world captive, including countries in the East African Community. The continuing fallout from Britain’s exit has caused extraordinary political and economic upheaval in the currency markets with a possible global recession that is not likely to leave the EAC unscathed. But for us in the region parallels have also been drawn how the EU project has inspired the continued integration of EAC, though with a cautious rider to keep a close eye on the UK-EU saga and watch out for the pitfalls. Yet Brexit is probably an episode that should long have long been anticipated. One reading of history suggests that Brexit and the fears it has wrought of imminent EU breakup may have been pre-ordained in the rise and fall of ancient civilizations. According to one analysis, it fits “into a model that some scientists have recognized as symptomatic of a civilization on its way towards disintegration.” (See “In the Science of Civilizations, Brexit is the European Union’s Reckoning”). If this is the case, the nascent EAC and its ambition for inclusion of more countries in the larger Eastern Africa should sit up and pay attention to what an unguarded future may hold. The analysis quotes evolutionary anthropologist, Peter Turchin, who thinks of the European Union as an empire. Empires are groups of states glued together by cooperation, which fits in with the expanse of EU’s 28 states that stretches from the sunny coasts of Portugal to the frigid taiga of Finland. He describes historical empires as large-scale, multi-ethnic conglomerations—ones that wouldn’t come together except under a mighty ruling class. In a successful civilization, Turchin says, the ruling class cooperates among itself to create functional rules. This is echoed, for example, in how the EU bureaucracy issues regulations on economy, labour, environment and migration that the member nations have to comply. This means that the ruling class also cooperates with the general population to make sure those rules keep everybody reasonably happy, employed, and safe from harm. But many Europeans are unhappy, with Brexit being just a symptom of Europe’s larger issues. EU’s critics perceive many of its failings to include running Greece into the ground in exchange for the right to remain in the euro zone. They also accuse it of failing to solve massive unemployment across southern Europe and miscalculating the Russian response to the EU bid to woo Ukraine. There is also the EU’s fractured handling of the refugee crisis. And, specifically for the aggrieved Britons, they blame the EU’s trade agreements and open borders for lost wages, increased burdens on social programs, and the rising threat of terrorism. As in ancient civilisations, it is “one of the signs when the elites make policy choices that bring about increasing inequality which turn into torches for the disaffected general population.” Brexit made the grievances a decisive and galvanising factor that could see the EU project come apart. It may create a domino effect across Europe in which “the civilization then shakes itself apart, or is toppled by a suddenly stronger external force.” You may guess what the external force could actually be. The East African Community is still a far distance from what the borderless Schengen Area the EU currently is. And, despite the EAC Parliament and functional secretariat, still further from the EU-like government with powers to regulate environmental, socio-economic and security programs. And, while Brexit is now passé, it needs not be emphasised it is about time the EAC started introspecting and anticipating pertinent issues such as it has brought to the fore in order to have mechanisms to address them before they occur. Either this or the EAC project is dead in the water. The lesson is it pays to read from history, even as it happens a la Brexit.

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Brexit's lesson to EAC lies deeper in history of civilisation