After the debacle of Mushaki in December 2007, will President Kabila likely learn a lesson from the one of Goma this time?

The Congolese army unceremoniously abandoned Goma town, the capital of the North-Kivu province, on Wednesday 29 before firing a single shot when they learnt the CNDP forces were approaching. Facing the progress of Laurent Nkunda’s forces, towards the north of the city, the DRC Armed forces withdrew in the direction of Bukavu, South-Kivu, at about a hundred kilometres to the south, as has been confirmed by some very senior sources in the Congolese military, FARDC. According to the UN, the regular army is prey to a “downfall of discipline”, gave itself over “to depredation and pillage”. There is not a single soldier in the city”, confirmed an inhabitant of Goma, specifying that the governmental tanks beating a retreat from the front at the north of Goma took “the direction” of Bukavu. According to another inhabitant, the Republican Guard’s helicopters (GR, presidential guard) took off in direction of South-Kivu. However, earlier in the morning, the FARDC had been supported by the UN helicopter fighters. Indeed, the Head of the UN Mission in DRC (Monuc), Alan Doss, had promised Tuesday to do “everything that is necessary to defend the city.” Now that the reality of the terrain has failed him, what will be his next move if Kinshasa does not heed the call of the CNDP leader to engage in direct talks? The leader of the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), General Nkunda, proclaimed on Wednesday evening a “one-sided cease-fire” in his own words in order « not to panic the population of Goma as well as those in the camps around the city”. But on the same Wednesday evening, the rebellion accompanied its truce with a threat of resumption of hostilities in case of any slight movement of the FARDC army. Meanwhile we hear that while the FARDC are on their heels, they actually left the terrain and weapons to their FDLR allies, somehow in replication of the December 2007 Mushaki scenario. And indeed, the CNDP accuses the Congolese army in discomfiture of having abandoned some positions to Hutu fighters, and other reliable sources in MONUC have confirmed to our reporter that at least two FDLR rebel brigades are fighting alongside the Congolese army. One would not be surprised if President Kabila called again for an « Amani Process II » following the January 2008 Amani Process whose only result was to buy time for the FARDC and their FDLR allies to reorganize and re-equip for the latest confrontation with the CNDP. Let us just mention two of several incidents that illustrate this fact as disclosed by a very reliable source: On 3rd May 2008, Lt. Col Tharcisse NDITURENDE alias Hussein, by then FDLR 4th Battalion (Bn) commander held a meeting with FARDC Cols. Smith GIHANGA and David RUGAYI of 9th and 14th Brigades (Bdes) respectively in Goma aimed at strengthening collaboration between FARDC and FDLR. The meeting resolved that the two Hutu Commanders (GIHANGA and RUGAYI) would mobilize all Hutu soldiers in the 8th Military Region (MR) not to fight FDLR in case operations were to be launched against them. They further promised to continue offering military support to FDLR. On 4 May 08, Col. Delphin KAYIMBI, FARDC 8th Military Region Deputy Commander convened a meeting of Bde and Bn Commanders at FARDC 8 MR HQs in Goma aimed at briefing them about “Rwanda’s continued accusations of FARDC’s collaboration with ex-FAR/Interahamwe”. He cautioned his subordinates to deny the Rwandan intelligence any opportunity of clear evidence on the ongoing FDLR/FARDC collaboration. Whereas in paragraph 11 of the Nairobi Joint Communiqué, the DRC commits herself to refrain from aiding and abating the FDLR, the status of collaboration between the FARDC and FDLR remained unchanged or rather reinforced as illustrated by the extent of supplies of arms to FDLR by FARDC, collocations between the two forces and other secret meetings held between DRC government officials and representatives of FDLR during the year 2007 which resulted into involvement of the FARDC/FDLR unsuccessful joint operations against CNDP forces late that year. In 2008, FARDC infantry Brigades close to the Rwandan border continued to provide material support to FDLR North and South Kivu-based infantry units. This simply shows that the Amani Process was never aimed at Amani (Peace) in the region, as its name would depict. One could conclude that President Kabila will never learn from his own mistakes when in a such disastrous situation as is currently in the North Kivu, he still tries to lure President Kagame into yet other summits to discuss and come up with paper agreements that he knows very well Kinshasa will never execute. One wonders why the DRC leadership does not pull out one among a long list of peace agreements and resolve at least one of the major stumbling blocks to the much-needed peace in Eastern DRC and the region in general. The French minister of the Foreign Affairs, Bernard Kouchner, is evoking a European military deployment in the Kivus. International powers may continue to feed Kinshasa with illusions that the solution to his country’s woes lies in foreign military intervention but is Ituri enjoying peace after the recent intervention by French military forces? The EU diplomat in chief, Javier Solana, was however more realistic by arguing that such an intervention was not of actuality. This deployment of such a military in the circumstances would be like treating the symptoms of an unknown disease and totally ignore the real cause of these symptoms. If the international community means well, why don’t they get to the root causes of the conflict and help Kinshasa by working on governance ills through the eradication of the vice of persecution of minority tribes in Eastern DRC? Why don’t they resolve the problem of refugees and discrimination among others and once for all resolve the problem of the FDLR, which is not only a threat to Rwanda but even to the poor Congolese as well as the region in general? Let the International community and any peace loving body be cautioned: Despite the still theoretical multiple operational plans against the negative forces that have been proposed through the various agreements and initiatives, the DRC government has never conducted any attack against FDLR, it has instead continued to arm them and has with all evidence, allied with them in their war effort against the CNDP. The collaboration between FDLR forces and FARDC as well as their co-location show a complete lack of political will to end the threat from these genocidal forces. The continued presence of the FDLR in Eastern DRC is a major threat to Rwanda and a symbol of bad governance on the part of Kinshasa that should henceforth be resolved through any of the various existing peace frameworks prepared during the decade-long period. Ends