Signs of thawing relations over the Nile waters

It was a good show of easing relations at the 10th Regional Nile Day celebrations in Kenya earlier this week. It saw enthusiastic representation of the full complement of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) member states. But things have not always been optimistic. Use of the Nile waters has had a contentious history, pitting Egypt and Sudan on the one side, and the rest of the riparian states in the Nile Basin on the other. The upstream states include Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Eritrea is the eleventh member, though on observer status. However, Egypt and Sudan have traditionally taken the biggest share of the Nile resources even though they have the least percentage share of contribution to its waters. This continues to be a bone of bitter contention. (See “The Nile should be an enabler of cooperation, not conflict”). But the 10th Nile Day brought all these countries together, indicating a thaw in frosty relations buried deep in the region’s colonial history. Britain, the then colonial masters, signed two treaties in 1929 and in 1958 with Egypt and the Sudan almost giving them exclusive rights to the Nile waters. The 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty granted Egypt an annual water allocation of 48 billion cubic metres and Sudan 4 billion cubic metres out of an estimated average annual yield of 84 billion cubic metres. The treaty also granted Egypt veto power over any future construction projects on the Nile River or any of its tributaries in an effort to minimize any interference with the flow of water into the Nile. And, in 1959, Egypt and the newly independent Sudan signed a bilateral agreement, increasing their water allocations to 55.5 billion cubic meters and 18.5 billion cubic meters, respectively. The two treaties did not make any allowance for the water needs of the other riparian states, who bitterly protested the inequality from the onset of the countries’ independence, leading to the creation of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999. The NBI would be the vehicle for negotiations for a treaty that would lead to more equitable use of the river. The first Nile Day was celebrated in 2007 in Kigali, and has since been observed every 22nd February to commemorate the establishment of the NBI. The NBI yielded results and, beginning May 2010, the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) has been in place ready for signature by the riparian states (except Eritrea). As of March last year, six of the NBI member countries – Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia – had ratified the CFA. But while, in principle, the other members are in the CFA, Egypt and Sudan remain strongly opposed arguing for their “acquired rights” to the Nile, pushing for amendment to the wording in Article 14(b), which stipulates that: “Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation: . . . (b) not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State.” They propose alternative wording for the Article: “Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation: . . . (b) not to significantly affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State” (underlined emphasis is mine). The proposed amendment to read “the current uses and rights” would be tantamount to staying the status quo of prior rights in the 1929 and 1959 Agreements that ensured inequity and unfairness, which the other riparian states have rejected. In the meantime, and despite opposition to the Article 14(b), March 2015 also saw the leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign a tripartite agreement in Khartoum that in effect recognized the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project (GERDP). About 80 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River comes from the Ethiopian highlands through the Blue Nile; the rest comes from the White Nile. The tripartite agreement, and the full complement attendance at the 10th Nile Day, makes for another milestone after the CFA. It’s a sign that it’s just a matter of time before all members live up to the NBI motto: One river; one people; one vision.

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Signs of thawing relations over the Nile waters