What is behind Pierre Nkurunziza’s defiance?

The death count continues to rise in Burundi. It is a gruesome statistic Burundians can happily do without. As this happens, diplomats continue to talk. President Pierre Nkurunziza remains defiant and intransigent. Ordinary people whose only concern is daily survival bear the brunt of the violence. Nobody knows the exact figure or when the killings will end, or even whether the situation will escalate and take on a new form. That is everyone’s concern, although it has not been enough to move the world to act to end the killings. Of course, the classic diplomatic efforts have been in evidence. The most recent was the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa at the end of January on which so much hope had been pinned. The Summit took no decision to end the violence. As so often happens in matters of diplomacy when there is indecision and inaction, a mission was set up to visit Burundi and persuade President Nkurunziza to agree to talks with the opposition. The mission, composed of his peers, is expected to convince him to be a good boy and not have everything to himself, but share with others. That’s what good Christian boys do. It is not clear what this mission will offer him that will make him change his mind. Appeals to good behaviour, fairness or sense of responsibility have not worked with him before. Before the upcoming mission, there was another, made up of United Nations Security Council Ambassadors. They were unable to get Nkurunziza to agree to inclusive dialogue. Their frustrations were summed up in US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power’s words that the talks “didn’t achieve as much, frankly, as I think we would have liked”. The African Union even threatened to send a 5000 strong force to Burundi to make sure the killings stopped. The idea of the force was still born as Nkurunziza threatened to shoot them and other African leaders opposed it. Before the UN Security Council Ambassadors’ mission and that of the African Union, a mediation effort by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni had been going on. There are no results to show, perhaps because the mediator is too busy working to ensure his own political future. Or perhaps he really doesn’t think the situation in Burundi is as grave as it is reported to be. Whatever the reasons, the mediation effort hasn’t worked, and the various missions might be admission of its failure. Amidst all the diplomatic activity, and after getting over the initial fear caused by an attempted coup d’état and a popular uprising, and threats of sanctions, President Nkurunziza has remained defiant. And for all intents and purposes he has become a hermit president, holed up in his country home in Gitega, hidden from his own people and anyone who would like to help him. One question is on most people’s lips. Where does he get the confidence to defy everyone: the East African Community, the African Union and the UN? What is the cause for his hard-line stance? He must either be a fool or have very powerful backing. He used to enjoy the backing of Tanzania when Jakaya Kikwete was president. It is unlikely the new president of Tanzania gives him the same support. Still, there are others in the government and the military who still have very good connections with him. South Africa had some leverage on Burundi in the past. President Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki invested time and energy to end the civil war in the country. Both used the moral authority and economic and military power of South Africa to bear on Burundi’s fractious politicians. President Jacob Zuma does not have the same standing as his predecessors, but he too has had some influence, although it is not informed by the same high ideals. But relying on that alone must be risky business since Zuma’s ground in South Africa is increasingly becoming shaky. Reports coming from the AU Summit in Addis Ababa indicated that the presidents most opposed to sending a force to Burundi were mainly from French-speaking countries. If this is true, it would indicate another source of backing. It is a well-known fact that these leaders traditionally follow instructions from a certain former colonial power. There might be another reason for intransigence. Burundi’s politics is notoriously fractious. Political leaders are among the most undemocratic. No one would consider ceding authority to another even if that was the only way to save their country from certain catastrophe. Nkurunziza is himself an example of this mule-like selfish streak. He knows his compatriots very well – that they could never unite and pose a serious threat. As the diplomats continue to make their rounds between Bujumbura, Addis Ababa and New York, and the politicians play their power games, ordinary Burundians continue to die, flee the country or see their hopes of a better life recede. It is unconscionable that the life of a little boy selling boiled eggs, his only means to live till the next day, should be cut by a grenade hurled by people he has no quarrel with. He deserves protection and the chance for a better life. jorwagatare@yahoo.co.uk

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What is behind Pierre Nkurunziza’s defiance?