Burundians must be helped

The loud concerns about Burundi in the region and globally is not merely venting about a worrying situation. But when this column dwelled on the situation last month, arguing that it has already taken too long for the African Union and the international community to intervene, a commentator reacting to the concern quipped that I should “stop hyperventilating.” The respondent urged giving diplomacy a chance, while observing – despite evidence to the contrary –that “Burundi is not on the precipice of cataclysmic violence.” Diplomacy is always the best option, but not if hobbled by too many conditionalities denying it the chance. And, certainly, not while there’s no guarantee that the killings will stop as fearful and unconvinced citizens continue to flee the country and find refuge across EAC. The intra-Burundi dialogue in Entebbe, Uganda and another meeting on the same issue held Tanzania earlier this week both ended in a stalemate as both sides issued conditions to be met before the talks can proceed. I also beg to disagree with the said commentator when I look at the numbers. According to the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report projecting Gross Domestic Product for countries in Africa for this year, figures show that Burundi has sunk from +4.76 per cent last year to -7.71 per cent in 2016. The current IMF figures are a revision of its April 2015 “Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating headwinds”. The negative GDP projection not only affects Burundi, but the entire region – not least because of the “significant uptick in political instability and violence” in the country. And, according to the April 2015 IMF Regional Economic Outlook, the GDP growth for the other EAC member countries ranged between 5.2 and 7.2 per cent, and have reduced only slightly with the current revision in the general global trends. For this reason Burundi concerns us in the EAC more, given our continued integration and heightened socio-economic interaction. With Burundi in the doldrums it will pinch many pockets in the region, and more drastically for the Burundian citizen who must bear the heaviest economic cost of the instability and violence. A prosperous neighbour is good for us all. Indeed, the negative showing in Burundi, which has been likened with Libya (+4.60 to -6.09 per cent) in it “significant uptick in political instability and violence”, along with a few other countries such as South Sudan (+3.39 to -5.33 per cent) and Sierra Leone (-12.76 to -23.92 per cent) are the ones “pulling Africa down.” But for Sierra Leone, the economy had already been expected to contract due the Ebola crisis, combined with the collapse of iron ore prices that precipitated a much greater decline at more than 20 per cent. South Sudan’s fortunes have also been hit by the fall in oil prices. Analysts observe that the price of Brent crude, a global benchmark for the price of oil, has fallen by over 50 per cent in 2015 from over $100 per barrel a year earlier, which has also affected Libya. On the whole, however, the projected average GDP growth figures for Africa in real terms – now at 3.62 from 4.17 predicted in the April IMF report is still above the global average of 3.12 per cent. This is relatively strong compared to other world regions, and second only to the Asia-Pacific region. But, back to Burundi: The African Union is in a quandary after the suggestion of a 5,000-strong peacekeeping force was vehemently opposed by the Burundi government. Authorities in the country have threatened to attack the peacekeeping force if, and when, it will be deployed to the country. The AU will wait until its next summit to decide on what action it can take against Burundi, including imposing sanctions. As a final word, as Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to outperform other regions of the world, it is little consolation for us in the EAC as Burundi continues on its slow burn, threatening to explode at any moment. The AU and the international community must decisively act now.

Opinions

Burundians must be helped