Regional stories to watch in 2016

The year 2015 might be over but some of its stories will crossover into 2016 and continue making news headlines across the region and beyond; what will those be? From the ongoing crisis in Burundi to Uganda’s general election next month and Rwanda’s post-2017 conversation, it appears that politics will shape media coverage in East Africa. The Sunday Times takes a look. Rwanda’s post-2017 conversation In April 2016, President Paul Kagame told Rwandans to convince him to stay in office after his current term expires next year. They succeeded eight months later and in a televised New Year message delivered on the stroke of midnight, Kagame said he would stand again. “…You requested me to lead the country again after 2017. Given the importance and consideration you attach to this, I can only accept,” he said. So is that it then? Not quite. President Kagame’s midnight announcement is not in any way a full-stop to the conversation on Rwanda’s succession debate, it is only a semicolon, so the story continues into 2016. Rwanda has successfully maneuvered through the difficult part, regarding the strict articles on presidential term-limits in the previous constitution; the entire process leading to the amendments and the referendum that overwhelmingly approved the exercise. The vote in December helped build national consensus on the matter after a majority of Rwandans agreed on a position; the small minority that opposed the amendments has one last card to play, field a formidable challenger to run against the incumbent in next year’s polls. As the country counts down to the polls, news coverage is likely to focus on who will be Kagame’s challenger in 2017? Or will he be unopposed? There is also the matter of opinions of some of Rwanda’s external development partners. In his address, Kagame slightly addressed their fears when he said he wasn’t propagating himself into a life president for Rwanda adding that power will in the future be handed to another person. But after several months of dedicated epistles to Rwanda, discouraging the President from accepting another term, they now know that they lost the fight to Rwandans; what will they do now? The media will be watching for reactions from some of Rwanda’s close development partners; some are likely to continue issuing statements denouncing the decision made by the majority of Rwandans while others may be noble enough and accept the aspirations of Rwandans. Burundi’s peace talks The peace talks to placate political tension in Burundi kicked off shortly after Christmas, in Kampala but on rather wobbly legs. Will they yield? Whether the talks succeed or not in returning stability to Bujumbura will be a source of constant news headlines in the region and beyond. Former Burundi presidents (L-R) Pierre Buyoya, Sylvestre Ntibantunganya, Domitien Ndayizeye and Jean-Baptiste Bagaza attended the inaugural session in Kampala recently to draw the agenda for talks aimed at ending the political unrest in Burundi. (Courtesy The year 2015 was nothing but terrible for ordinary Burundians who started fleeing the country ten months ago when political unrest broke out following President Pierre Nkurunziza’s contested claim to a third term in office. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Burundians entered the New Year not in the comfort of their homes but in refugee camps located in neigbouring countries; about 80,000 in Rwanda, over 200,000 in Tanzania while others are in Uganda and DR Congo. Coverage of the story in 2015 focused on the plight of refugees, an attempted coup, the human rights abuse inside Burundi, the scores of unexplained dead bodies littered on the streets, and recently, the alleged formation of a rebel group seeking to topple Nkurunziza. These developments have caught the attention of the African Union which has voted to act by deploying a peacekeeping force to watch over the situation and prevent it from escalating. But President Nkurunziza, in a rather feckless and hubristic manner, openly threatened to fight the AU peacekeeping force whose presence in Burundi, he says, is unwarranted. Will the AU be bullied by Nkurunziza into cancelling its deployment plans at the cost of a worsening the humanitarian situation in Burundi? A return to stability in Burundi, observers say, depends mainly on one man, Nkurunziza. After a self sponsored process that led to him to victory in an election that international bodies dismissed as a sham, he nonetheless sees himself as the country’s ‘legitimate’ head of state. The peace talks in Kampala can therefore not possibly tell him to step down. Also, the opposition against him seems undefined and with no clear constituency. Until the opposition is clearly defined, a power sharing proposal may not work. Forces opposed to Nkurunziza say he’s illegitimate and are willing to topple him by force which would mean a new fully fledged civil war in Burundi; with AU peacekeepers locked out of the gate, only peace talks can avert that ugly prospect. Uganda decides in February East Africa’s veteran politician Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 71, is seeking a fifth term as Uganda’s president and the election is scheduled to take place next month. Although he is widely expected to win the contest, he is facing formidable opposition from two of his erstwhile allies; Amama Mbabazi, who was until late last year, the country’s prime minister as well as secretary general of the ruling National Resistance Movement party. Retired Colonel Kiiza Besigye is Museveni’s other competition. Besigye, who is running for the third time, was Museveni’s personal doctor in the Bush war that brought Uganda’s ruling party to power in 1986. Known for his militant rhetoric, Besigye has told his supporters that next month’s election must deliver change. Although the campaigns have been generally peaceful, so far, a few violent incidents that have resulted into death and serious injuries have been recorded. As a result, that country’s parliament is debating whether to allocate resources to deal with potential post-election violence. The result of Uganda’s election next month and the reaction of the losers will definitely dominate media coverage in the first half of this year. Kenya’s fight against terror In an audacious show of solidarity, Muslim passengers travelling on a bus through Kenya’s north eastern region defied orders from armed Al-Shabab militants to separate from their Christian counterparts and give way to what would have been a ghastly massacre three days to Christmas. The incident was a relief in the global fight against terrorism that has nearly been polarized along two religious sides, Muslims and Christians. Kenya has suffered several terror attacks in the last couple of months that have left East Africa’s largest economy battered. The country’s key tourism sector has taken the worst hit as international visitors stay away from visiting Kenya’s beautiful resorts and wildlife. Uganda and Rwanda are in partnership with Kenya for East Africa’s Single Tourist Visa and the effects on the latter’s tourism sector hurts the fortunes of the other two. The brave act of Muslim passengers on the bus is the kind of support President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government will be hoping for in a bid to avert future terror attacks and make 2016 a peaceful year. Tanzania under Magufuli The election in October, of John Pombe Magufuli as Tanzania’s new president was an instant hit among East Africans who, in honour of his austerity approach to leadership, quickly created one of 2015’s most trending hash-tags on twitter; #WhatWouldMagufuliDo? For the rest of his five year term, the cameras will stay glued on him watching every step he takes in a quest to transform Tanzania while playing a central role in regional affairs. Rwanda has already warmed up to working with Magufuli’s administration to solve some of the issues in which both countries have an interest. A day to Christmas, Rwanda Foreign Affairs Minister Louise Mushikiwabo flew to Tanzania where she delivered a special message to Dr Magufuli from President Paul Kagame. In the message, President Kagame reportedly commended his counterpart for the good job he has so far done and assured him of Rwanda’s continued cooperation with Tanzania politically, socially and economically. Jointly, Rwanda and Tanzania are hosting close to 300,000 Burundian refugees given their proximity to the troubled neigbour and during their meeting, Mushikiwabo and President Magufuli discussed the need to stabilize Burundi and allow civilians to return home. With talks off to a shaky start in Kampala, the media will be watching how both Tanzania and Rwanda work together with other countries in ensuring a positive outcome from the negotiations. editorial@newtimes.co.rw

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Regional stories to watch in 2016