Officials await El Nino predictions

As scientists predict El Niño to hit the region in the coming month, officials in various government departments await final weather assessment by specialised agency of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)- an eight-country trade bloc in Africa- to know the intensity of what could be the beyond normal rainfall. The El Niño is a Pacific-wide phenomenon that has had global consequences and, scientists predict that the phenomenon will be particularly severe this year. The Rwanda Meteorology Agency (RMA) is yet come out on El Niño but officials in other government departments say a conclusive picture which will help in planning is anticipated next week. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs (MIDMAR) and other ministries are all waiting to get the final weather assessment by the IGAD specialised agency. Apparently, not only Rwanda but other regional countries too are waiting for the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), a regional organisation dedicated to provide warning against climatic hazards and destructive weather to member countries, to shed light on the looming danger, if any. “It is very true that the El Nino is likely to strike the region, causing heavy rains but we are still waiting for ICPAC/IGAD to finalise the downscaling of the forecast by the end of this week,” Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva, director of risk reduction and preparedness in MIDMAR told The New Times. “Next week, we will have a clear map of how much each country should be concerned and hence decide on further actions.” ICPAC’s mission is to foster sub-regional and national capacity for climate information, prediction products and services, early warning, and related applications as a contribution to sustainable development in the IGAD sub-region. A Seasonal Forecast for July-September 2015 published on the RMA website states that the “near normal to above normal rainfall expected during July to September rainfall season may cause some diseases.” “Therefore relevant authorities responsible for health sector and other vulnerable institutions should put in place both preventive and mitigating strategies to minimise loss of life and property.” El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including off the Pacific coast of South America. The RMA says it will continue to monitor the atmosphere as El-Niño condition are still present and the positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean, with greater than 90 per cent chance that El Niño will continue up to September 2015, and around 85 per cent chance it will last through the end of 2015. The agency predicts an early onset during the short rain season. This outlook, the agency says, should be used in conjunction with 24-hour, 5-day and 10-day forecasts and regular monthly updates and advisories it will publish. Estimating what will happen in the wet seasons can have a huge benefit, particularly for planning in agriculture and water resources. Prof. Telesphore Ndabamenye, the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) deputy director general in charge of crop production and food security, said planting season 2016 A is underway but there should be no cause for alarm as the situation will be managed accordingly, when clear-cut forecasts are availed. “Besides, all districts don’t have the same terrain and weather conditions. When we get to know when exactly and where the heavy rains will hit, we have a system of advising farmers on how to proceed,” Ndabamenye said. “We will need the real facts so as to plan accordingly and better. And it is not too late. Farmers are preparing their fields as usual but we all, including all other concerned government departments, will first look at the facts. Mitigation measures will be based on facts.” EAC’s worst El Nino in 60 years? Media reports said this week that one of the strongest and wettest El Ninos, ever since the 1997 weather that killed many people in Kenya, and left hundreds homeless, will soon pummel East Africa, bringing heavy rains, floods and malaria. El Niño which is not an individual weather event but a climate pattern, unlike hurricanes, generally produces heavy rains, higher temperatures and cyclones in parts of South America and east Africa. Early this week, Kenya Meteorological Services (KMS) dismissed a report by the Nairobi County Government that the Kenyan capital would experience high rainfall in September. KMS Deputy Director Peter Ambeje told a local newspaper that it is too early to know the intensity of the expected rainfall. “Most people have the misconception that El Nino means extreme rainfall like the one that was experienced in 1997. This is not always the case, and it is now that we are analysing the forecast to know the kind of rainfall patterns to expect,” Ambeje is quoted saying. However, climate experts predict that the ocean current pattern, which moves from the West to East Pacific, will have profound environmental and economic effects across the globe and it looks set to be particularly intense as it returns this year after a six-year hiatus. The phenomenon happens, experts say, when warm water that builds up on the west side of the Pacific floods eastward with the abatement of the westerly trade winds which penned it up. editorial@newtimes.co.rw

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Officials await El Nino predictions