Threat of regional conflict in 2015 is real

As pressure mounts for the UN to act decisively on the rebel group, Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, it is worth appreciating what the conflict situation in the region portends this year. An analysis in the authoritative Foreign Policy Magazine draws a list of “10 Wars to Watch in 2015”. Five of them are in Africa: South Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Libya. Though the magazine notes that the list is to “some degree arbitrary”, especially “with so many crises raging” globally, it is no comfort that three of them – South Sudan, Somalia, and DRC – are within the African Great Lakes and the Horn, and therefore right in our neighbourhood. The potential for conflict continuing – or escalating – this year is a reality we have to contend with. Let us start with DRC, especially as it relates to the FDLR. It is not debatable that the UN must resolutely act, even as it amasses its troops to embark on the joint offensive after the rebel group defied the January 2 deadline to surrender. FDLR must be done away with this time around. There are serious concerns, however; about how the impending offensive might play out after the disturbing revelations in the leaked mid-term report of the UN Group of Experts on the Congo carried in this paper earlier this week (see “DR Congo still arming FDLR, says UN report”). And, with the stalled security sector reforms in the country, there are also concerns of possible complications brought about by the looming polls “in an already fragile political environment.” All out conflict is likely, a situation we can ill afford. It is these that make DRC a place to especially watch in 2015. In Somalia, as the FP Magazine observes, the Federal Government is still struggling to actually govern. Political discord at both the federal and regional levels now threatens the government’s stated ambition of holding elections and a constitutional referendum by 2016. “The twin goals of federal state-formation and national elections — both still largely viewed, locally, as a zero-sum game of clan dominance — are likely to generate further conflict.” Add in this mix the dark spectre of al Shabaab. Though the terrorist group is largely subdued at the onslaught of the combined offensives by African Union forces (AMISOM) and the Somali army, it remains strong enough to carry out attacks within Somalia and neighbouring Kenya, with serious threats posed to Uganda and Burundi who have troops in AMISOM. In South Sudan, Foreign Policy notes how efforts mainly spearheaded by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to end the brewing disagreements have not succeeded. Talks have had little impact and are not inclusive. Ceasefires are repeatedly violated, while armed groups are fragmenting and fueling secondary conflicts that are evolving in the civil war’s shadow. The conflict environment in these three countries lays bare the perilous spot states in the region are in – a potentially distabilising situation the neighbours cannot just sit and watch from the sidelines. But it is a global, not a regional problem. The FP Magazine notes that “stabilizing the world’s most vulnerable areas should be a major, global foreign policy imperative — and not just a moral one, given that these regions often serve as a haven for terrorists and transnational criminals.” This is true, but it also observes that “military action won’t work alone; in fact, it often perpetuates underlying drivers of conflict — power inequalities, underdevelopment, state predation, identity politics and so forth. What keeps countries together are political settlements. Ending wars or avoiding crises requires a process that steers toward that.” The FP suggestion is one way of looking at it, and is conflict specific. The other imperative is that groups the ilk of FDLR and al Shabaab must be completely obliterated – not negotiated with. What is certain is the region should brace itself for a not-so-calm 2015. The writer is a commentator on local and regional issues

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Threat of regional conflict in 2015 is real