Kabila’s options for peace in DRC

It is now several weeks since M23 rebels in eastern DR Congo were defeated. An uneasy calm hangs over the region, enforced by the heavy presence of Congolese and Monusco troops. In essence, eastern Congo is under the military occupation of the allied forces that pushed M23 out of the region and is governed by a collection of NGOs.However, no one is under any illusion that peace has returned to the region. And it probably will not unless there is a shift in the attitude of the Congolese government and the international community about the problems of the region.At the moment no such shift is in sight. Both President Joseph Kabila and his foreign backers have been blinded by victory to the realities of eastern Congo and have consequently become intransigent. That is why the DR Congo government has lately shown so much arrogance and disrespect to the peace mediator, President Yoweri Museveni, regarding the signing of a peace agreement with M23.This intransigence is built on false confidence and the wrong premise. And if President Kabila does not wake up to the reality in the region soon enough, he risks losing whatever gains he may have made and the situation reverting to what it was before.The first such wrong premise is the notion propagated by the media and Kabila’s supporters that the victory was the work of the Congolese army (FARDC) and that this was brought about by Kabila’s stroke of organisational genius in changing the military command in the east of the country. The new commanders are reported to have fed the troops, paid their salaries and enforced discipline.Everyone, including those peddling this line, knows this is a piece of fiction just like the Congolese state. It is well-known that FARDC’s provisions – both food rations and weapons – came from Monusco stores. They had intelligence, artillery and air cover from Monusco. Troops from the UN Intervention Brigade and the genocidal FDLR forces fought in their ranks. The truth is that the victory was won by an alliance of forces.Questions therefore remain. Can the uneasy calm hold if foreign troops withdrew? And can the alliance be sustained considering that some of them are supposed to be the target of Monusco/FIB mission to neutralise them? If they (FDLR) remain part of the alliance, aren’t they clearly a liability?Unless President Kabila can resolve these issues, he will remain a hostage and unable to exercise any control over the east of his country.The second source of false confidence is the inability to admit that victory has not removed the causes of the conflict in the Kivus. DR Congo’s foreign supporters recognise this fact but appear reluctant to follow through with measures to tackle the problem. They seem content with maintaining the status quo, which in effect means an open-ended mandate for Monusco and the many special envoys as armed guarantors for some sort of stability.Until the real causes of the conflict are dealt with, military occupation will only keep a lid on matters. But that can only be for a time. Beyond that, they are bound to erupt again into open conflict.Thirdly, President Kabila’s obstinacy comes from the false belief that since external meddlers in the DR Congo and the supposed source of problems there – meaning Rwanda – have been removed from the scene, there is no need for reaching out to the former rebels of M23.This is also fiction. Congo’s problems are internal and much older than the present Government of Rwanda.The only connection to Rwanda is actually the responsibility of the French who shepherded into then Zaire the defeated Rwandan army (FAR) and its Interahamwe militia allies complete with their arms and military structures, and continued to arm them. The ex-FAR and Interahamwe transformed into the present day FDLR that has been causing mayhem in Eastern DRC.With this background, what then should be done to translate military victory into lasting peace?The most obvious thing is to go through with the peace agreement that commits the government and other partners to solve once and for all the problems that cause conflict. The argument that M23 has been defeated and no longer exists and cannot therefore enter into an agreement with the state is irrelevant and misleading. Grievances that led to the formation of M23 have not gone away, nor can they be wished away.President Kabila’s friends will do the Congolese great service if they exert pressure on him to sign the peace agreement and address the existing grievances.He has to get rid of FDLR, first from within the ranks of his army and then from Congolese territory. It will not be easy because he is heavily indebted to them for their support. But then peace has a price and statesmanship is not about easy or most convenient options. It is about making difficult and courageous choices.Finally, he has to establish an efficient state and extend it to the entire territory of DRC.These are the choices Kabila has to make. His friends must help him make them. Grandstanding and arrogance simply will not do. Humility and understanding might do the trick.

Opinions

Kabila’s options for peace in DRC