Nine points out of the possible 12 and six more still up for grabs; the Amavubi Stars have the destiny of their 2010 World/African Cup qualifying campaign in their own hands.

It is the first time in history that Rwanda has put together a four-match unbeaten run that includes three back-to-back wins in Fifa/Caf matches and with Mauritania (away) and Ethiopia (home) to come, three more points may well be enough to see the Amavubi Stars through to the third and final qualifying round.

On 12 points, Rwanda might go through either as group eight leaders or as one of the eight best first runners-up depending on how Morocco fairs against Ethiopia (away) and Mauritania in Casablanca.

If the Amavubi Stars win one of their remaining two fixtures, something which is more than a possibility, they should surely be among the best eight teams that finish second but like I have said earlier, that will depend on how Morocco the current group leaders and at some extent Ethiopia, fair in their remaining fixtures.

Morocco leads group eight with nine points, level with Rwanda but the Atlas Lions have scored more goals (10) and conceded less (four) as compared to Rwanda’s eight scored and four conceded, Ethiopia are third with six points while Mauritania are bottom without a point.

However, if Ethiopia beats Morocco and Rwanda provided Rwanda fails to beat Mauritania they (Ethiopia) move to 12 points and a home win for Morocco against Mauritania puts them to 12 points as well, leaving Rwanda in third spot with nine.

This is just to show part of the mathematics that we could find ourselves faced with in case of Amavubi losing their remaining two qualifiers.

With two rounds of matches remaining, ten teams including five group leaders have nine points, the other five including Rwanda are currently second in their respective groups.

After four rounds of second phase qualifiers, only Nigeria (12 points) in group four, Burkina Faso (12) group nine and Cameroon (10) in group one have more points than Rwanda and eight other countries.

The nine other teams on nine points are Cape Verde Island who are second in group one, Benin (top in group three), Ghana and Libya (first and second in group five), Tunisia (second in group seven), Mali who lead group 10 as well as DR Congo and Egypt, who are first and second in group 12. 

I am not one person who get carried away quite easily by anything, yes I mean it—you can say I’m a firm believer in the saying, "all that shines is not gold”, but as far Amavubi Stars’ chances of progressing to the next phase are concerned, I can confess that am a bit carried by the team’s situation.

We all or some of you agree that Branko Tucak’s team has played in patches, well today, not good enough tomorrow, poor the next day and awful against Morocco away but still they have come away with nine out of the possible 12 points.

Particularly, the match in Casablanca, I did a story about Rwandans not losing heart by the 2-0 reverse because in the past, like I put it, it could have been more, then a couple of days later someone called me to say, "no, we can’t be grateful in defeat, they (Amavubi) could have given more”.

The person who called me is actually very knowledgeable when it comes to issue to do with the national team and Rwandan football in general and after he told me all that he had, my mind almost agreed with him but the heart insisted on the otherwise.

His point was, after beating the Atlas Lions 3-1 just seven days earlier, a lot was expected from the players, unfortunately they offered little against a more improved Morocco team compared to the one they (Amavubi) faced in Kigali. 

He said, "But you can’t say, we should be grateful in defeat. If you asked me whether the player gave enough in that match, I’d say no.”

"They were playing against the same team they beat 3-1 just days before, then why did they have to panic every time they touched the ball? They could have done more,” he stressed.

True, they could have done more—that’s exactly what whoever watched that game would say and I didn’t, perhaps that’s why I still insist that, 2-0 away Morocco is not a bad result especially if you consider the state in which the Amavubi Stars were less than two months ago.

Some time around April, if you suggested that the Amavubi that was dominated and finally got beat 4-0 by Sudan and only managed an uninspired 1-1 draw in Kigali could beat Morocco 3-1 and lose by ‘only’ 2-0 in Casablanca, many would think you’ve gone crazy.

But again like I said in my match preview (Morocco v Rwanda), winning breeds confidence and when that gentleman called me to share his opinion, straight away something came to my mind, ‘after winning three in a row, now people are starting to believe that the party can go on and on! Even when it’s utterly impossible? No.

Unfamiliar situation

Amavubi Stars players have found themselves in a quite a strange situation where they’ve had to deal with the rigors of playing four competitive international matches in a space of about 22 days.

And what do get from such a set of players in that kind of situation—fatigue. Yes, sooner rather than later, exhaustion is inevitable and that’s exactly what might or (not) been the main catalyst to Amavubi’s defeat in Casablanca.

For me, Olivier Karekezi and Hamad Ndikumana have looked rusty more often than not on the field—it’s as if they’ve not been playing at their clubs.

Apart from the goals (three) and one or two assists, the captain has looked a complete shadow of the player we all know he is or can be when he dares to care! Ndikumana like Karekezi has played 360 minutes of the four qualifiers but for me he has had only match in which he showed glimpses of his former self when he still had the legs.

Against Morocco in Kigali, the veteran defender was the best defender on the field but against Mauritania, Ethiopia and Morocco (away), you could wonder whether his best days are well over behind him.

Saidi Abedi has done ok; Patrick Mafisango has been the best of the lot, Haruna.

Niyonzima has performed when he plays and the others have given the best they could.

But there is a time for everything, like the 4-0 defeat against Sudan and the three consecutive wins including 3-1 over Morocco, the defeat 2-0 away to Morocco, which I still insist was a surprise and eeh before I forget, Fatigue. What do you say?

Contact: nku78@yahoo.com