For Rwanda to be able to adequately feed its increasing population projected to reach over 25 million by 2050, it would require adopting the best farming practices to gradually increase by 15 times the 2019 yield levels per hectare, according to the National Land Use and Development Master Plan (NLUDMP) 2020 – 2050.
"Altogether, there will be no less than 12,433 km² of agricultural land in Rwanda in 2050. It means that the country could be food secured if yields are improved 15 times more than the existing 2019 return,” NLUDMP reads in part.
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According to the National Land Authority (NLA), agricultural land has in part been encroached on by construction activities, as population growth results in increased infrastructure needs such as houses, roads, health facilities, and schools.
"Some areas that were previously used for crop production in the City of Kigali are occupied by buildings,” agricultural economist Alfred Bizoza told The New Times, citing parts of Rusoro Sector which used to provide residents with beans, but now has residential houses.
He indicated parts of Kimihurura Sector that had banana plantations but are now residential and office building sites.
Data from the Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022, indicates that Rwanda’s population continued an upward trend over time, almost tripling between 1978 (4.8 million) and 2022 (13.2 million).
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Given that the country’s population continues to increase, yet the land remains the same, the focus should be put on increasing farm productivity, Bizoza said.
"We should ensure efficient land use so that it provides adequate yields,” he said, citing agricultural technologies including mechanisation.
Last month, NLA launched a campaign intended to engage Rwandan residents including journalists in the protection of agricultural land.
According to Alexis Rutagengwa, Head of Land Use Management and Mapping Department at National Land Authority (NLA), the proposed agricultural land is 12,433 km², which is 47.2 per cent of the total area of the country, and requires protection going forward.
Currently, agriculture accounts for about 60 per cent of Rwanda’s area.
Rutagengwa indicated that in order to feed the country’s population by 2050, with the required nutrients including calories and protein, two scenarios would be considered.
One scenario suggests that to continue the current yield situation, it would require 103,000 sq km (four times Rwanda’s surface) – an impossible option.
The other option was to adopt the best international yield which would require increasing productivity per hectare by 15 times.
Agricultural land protection is a critical issue in Rwanda due to the high population density of 501 inhabitants per km2, which is projected to reach 868 per km2 as per the 2022 census.
Protais Mpayimana, Urban and Rural Planning Division Manager at NLA, said that there are more than 3.3 million households in Rwanda, of which 68.9 per cent are engaged in agriculture.
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Mpayimana said implementing and enforcing regulations that protect agricultural land from conversion to non-agricultural uses can help to ensure that valuable farmland is not lost to other uses.
This includes monitoring land use changes and taking action to prevent illegal land use conversions.
Also, adopting soil conservation practices such as terracing, land consolidation, and intercropping can help to protect soil fertility and prevent erosion.
Efficiency in urbanisation
Today, considering 2022 statistics, 72.1 per cent of Rwandans, or 9.5 million people, live in rural areas, while 27.9 per cent, equivalent to 3.7 million people, live in urban areas.
Settlement in Rwanda by 2050, according to the NLUDMP, is structured in such a way that it seeks to reverse the situation.
Rutagengwa said that vertical construction of buildings – in the form of storey buildings such as apartments – is required for efficient land use.