Five days after Kigali said there was "a threat of imminent attacks” on Rwanda from DR Congo, on Tuesday, January 23, a warplane from DR Congo violated Rwanda’s airspace, at a time tensions between the two countries continue to rise.

It was the third such incident involving a Congolese Sukhoi-25 fighter jet in three months.

ALSO READ: Timeline: DR Congo’s violation of Rwandan airspace

Unlike the previous two incursions, the third warplane to violate Rwanda’s airspace was shot at in what the Rwandan government called "defensive measures.”

Kinshasa denied violating Rwandan airspace, and some officials in DR Congo told international media that the warplane ‘entered Rwandan airspace to make a turn’.

An act of war?

Can Tuesday’s incident amount to an act of war against Rwanda? Experts, who spoke to The New Times, weighed in on what exactly the incident means.

"Calling violation of airspace an act of war depends on the intention and circumstances prevailing at the time of a certain incident,” said Alphonse Muleefu, a lawyer and Principal of the College of Arts and Social Science at the University of Rwanda.

"Generally, states are prohibited from the use of military force or threat of use of force against other states. In this case, the violation of airspace by DR Congo could be easily interpreted as intended to cause harm or as a provocation, as a threat of war.”

Muleefu added: "This interpretation makes sense considering the current anti-Rwanda atmosphere and pro-war rhetoric from the Congolese leadership, and the fact that this incident had happened for the third time after repeated warnings.”

ALSO READ: Kigali regrets Kinshasa’s abandonment of Luanda, Nairobi peace processes

For Eric Ndushabandi, the former director of the Institute of Research and Dialogue for Peace (IRDP) and currently working at the Centre for Research, Training on Human Rights and Democracy, considering the fact that it was not the first time a Congolese warplane violated Rwandan airspace, then it did not happen by mistake.

"It is an act of war, where the actor, DR Congo, is pushing Rwanda to war,” Ndushabandi observed, adding: "The violation of airspace is an act of provocation to push Rwanda to attack and confirm the DRC argument of aggression.”

He went on to say that the other factors like the acquisition of new military equipment, recruitment of youth in military service, recruitment of mercenaries, engaging all forces including rebels and militias, continuous war rhetoric, and justification.

ALSO READ: Rwanda sets up emergency camp as more Congolese refugees arrive

"Why is it important for the Congolese government to provoke Rwanda? The reason is simply that the Congolese leadership has nothing to lose by engaging ordinary citizens in another irrational war. The small group around President Felix Tshisekedi want to maintain themselves in power with all the advantages they get from it,” said Ndushabandi.

ALSO READ: DR Congo crisis: A sequence of provocations against Rwanda

Can Rwanda and DR Congo go to war?

More than two months have elapsed since Kinshasa expelled Rwanda's ambassador, further deepening the tensions that had risen in mid-2022 when the M23 rebels launched an offensive on the Congolese armed forces (FARDC).

Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of supporting the rebels - allegations Kigali dismisses.

The FARDC has been accused of cooperating with FDLR militia to shell on Rwandan territory, three times in 2022.

The DR Congo President, Tshisekedi, is also on record saying that 'there is a need to mobilise Rwandans in DR Congo (referring to FDLR militias) to attack Rwanda and overthrow the government.'

"Tensions are high between Rwanda and DR Congo. [But are they] high enough for war?” asks Jonathan Beloff, a researcher focusing on the politics and security of the Great Lakes Region.

"I hope not but Congolese actions are seen here in Rwanda as threatening not only the nation’s physical security but its ontological security (because of the FARDC’s relations with the FDLR),” Beloff observed.