In 2022, Rwanda’s regional diplomacy got a boost, with Uganda border reopening and General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s visits to Kigali.
For Burundi relations, high-level delegations visited Kigali and Bujumbura, and in July Prime Minister Edouard Ngirente said the countries were ready to "open a new chapter.”
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However, relations with DR Congo soured in October after Kinshasa expelled Rwanda ambassador, Vincent Karega, amid accusations that Kigali supports the M23 rebels.
DR Congo’s security crisis and regional peace efforts
As soon as President Felix Tshisekedi signed the East African Community treaty in April this year, making DR Congo the bloc’s seventh member state, regional leaders expressed interest in helping him end the decades-long insecurity in the country’s east.
Hosted in the Kenyan capital Nairobi later in April, the first direct peace talks between the Congolese government and the multiple local and foreign armed groups gave hope that peace could finally take hold in the troubled eastern DR Congo.
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But that was until the M23 rebel group intensified its offensive on the Congolese armed forces (FARDC), citing ignored peace deals and continued attacks on Kinyarwanda-speaking communities.
The Congolese government in May labelled the M23 as a terrorist movement, hence banning the group from the inter-Congolese dialogue. The third round of the peace talks concluded earlier in December, with no tangible resolutions to end the conflict in eastern DR Congo.
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Kinshasa accused Kigali of supporting the M23 rebels, which has since soured relations. Rwanda has since denied the allegations, and instead dismissed the cooperation of the FARDC and the genocidal FDLR to fire rockets on Rwandan territory in May and June.
The provocations, condemned by Rwanda, have continued, the latest being the November 19 incident in which a Congolese soldier crossed the Rwandan border.
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Through what is known as the Luanda Roadmap, since July, Angolan President João Lourenço has been the mediator between Presidents Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame, to find a way out of the diplomatic crisis.
The East African Community has also deployed a regional force to restore peace in eastern DR Congo.
Instead of subsiding given the regional efforts, the conflict in DR Congo has escalated into communal violence targeted at Tutsi communities, which according to the United Nations special advisor on genocide prevention was a warning sign in a region where the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi happened.
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The EAC and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) have since November sought to harmonize the Luanda and Nairobi processes, in order to join efforts to bring peace to DR Congo’s east.
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The Congolese government has maintained its accusations that Rwanda supports the M23 rebels, which has at times led to certain Congolese officials making belligerent remarks about Rwandan leaders.
In respect to the Luanda mini-summit of the regional leaders, the M23 recently began to withdraw from occupied positions, calling it "a goodwill gesture done in the name of peace.”
The EAC regional force now occupies the Kibumba positions, where the M23 pulled out from.
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The fourth round of the inter-Congolese peace talks will take place in early 2023. However, it is not yet clear if this time round the M23 will be invited in Nairobi.
What’s clear though is that the conflict in eastern DR Congo will continue to attract more regional and international attention in 2023.
Rwanda’s improved regional relations
The Rwanda-Uganda border reopening earlier in January saw the two countries relations improve significantly and followed the President Paul Kagame’s meeting with General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s first son and then commander of land force.
Kainerugaba’s third visit this year was in October.
In Septerber, Rwanda and Uganda revived the Joint Permanent Commission after 10 years. The commission deals with matters related to regional security, among other things.
During a visit to Kigali, Uganda’s Foreign Minister Jeje Odongo met with his counterpart Dr Vincent Biruta.
Biruta then said the two countries' relations "are very good.” Odongo said: "We want to translate our relations into a voice that is in unison on matters that are in relation to our security plans and development.”
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Relations with Burundi took a further positive trajectory, with high-level visits from both countries.
In July, Prime Minister Ngirente attended Independence Day celebrations in Bujumbura, the first such visit since 2015, when the two countries’ relations took a downward turn.
Ngirente said it was "the right time for Burundi and Rwanda to build on our existing strong foundation of historical and cultural linkages in order to achieve prosperity and development.”