Increasing the survival rates of trees being planted will attract investors into Rwanda’s carbon market, experts have said.

Currently the survival rate of trees being planted is about 70 per cent. The carbon market scheme which requires high tree survival rate is an initiative that allows climate polluters to fund projects that reduce carbon emissions in other countries, and they can then include these emission reductions in their climate targets while still emitting greenhouse gases.

Tradable carbon credits on carbon market, in this context, equate to one tonne of reduced emissions.

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Forest projects are among projects to be put on the carbon market.

Rwanda seeks to reduce 38 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

So far, 30.4 per cent of the country’s surface is covered by forests.

Rwanda expects to sell 7.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) – carbon credits – estimating that they could generate $337 million.

Given that the minimum price is $30, Rwanda expects to get $45 per carbon credit (one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent), hence $337 million from 7.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

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Farmers could receive financial incentives based on the amount of carbon emissions their forests have reduced and sold on the carbon market each year.

Egide Karuranga, a researcher, presented a study about survival rates of planted trees and losses counted from replacing those which fail.

In collaboration with the Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF), the research was conducted in Nyagatare and Rutsiro districts and in parts of Uganda.

"Survival rates of planted trees are still low because farmers do not cater for them, others are destroyed by livestock and climate disasters. This causes a lot of losses. Over the past five years, replacing trees that did not survive cost Rwanda Rwf16 billion which is a big loss since the money would be spent on other projects if trees survived. High survival rates will help us enter the carbon market,” he explained.

He said the loss of income that was expected from the trees which did not survive over the past five years is equivalent to Rwf15 billion.

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"This means a Rwf30 billion loss over the past five years. The country loses at least Rwf6 billion every year,” he noted.

He said channelling funds to farmers as incentives to plant and manage trees on their farms to meet both their needs and broader public needs is important.

Karuranga said that to motivate farmers to ensure increased survival rates of trees, there are performance-based contracts (PBC) in which performance is judged on the survival of planted trees and their good management to a given level of maturity.

"All farmers who meet survival and management criteria are rewarded. The reward may be in cash or in kind. Examples of in-kind rewards that have been tried are livestock and agricultural implements. The expected outcome of performance-based contracts is an increase in tree cover on participating farms,” he said.

He said that a CIFOR-ICRAF project in Nyagatare helped farmers increase the tree survival rate from 30 per cent to over 60 per cent.

"We have also to help farmers plant trees such as avocadoes which provide high income as an incentive to manage them,” he said.

Concorde Nsengumuremyi, the Director General of Rwanda Forestry Authority, said they are considering new strategies to motivate farmers to ensure high survival rates of trees.

This, he noted, could help Rwanda achieve the global pledge to restore two million hectares of degraded land by 2050.

"Tragically, trees which are supposed to sequestrate all toxic gases behind the global warming of the planet, are dying on our watch. Scholars around the world point to a post-transplanting mortality rate of 70%,” said Athanase Mukuralinda, the Country Director of ICRAF Rwanda, and a leading researcher in forestry science.

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He said ICRAF provided goat donations to every family which reached a tree survival of 70%.

Based on the research findings, ICRAF scholars are crafting additional strategies to increase the number of achievers from 60% to 100% .

"An increase in survival rate saves the average Rwf6 billion lost in replacement of trees every year. Part of the savings are allocated to incentives in kind for performing farmers who will increase the survival rate from 30% to 90%,” he said.