Rwanda's heart-wrenching failure to qualify for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) after coming so close in the final stages of the qualifiers represents both a missed opportunity and a painful reminder of the fine margins that shape success and failure in international football.

Under German coach Frank Spittler, Amavubi produced a memorable 2-1 victory away to Nigeria, a first-ever triumph on Nigerian soil.

However, despite this historic win, the team fell short of securing qualification due to their earlier loss to Libya, which left them needing a near-miracle to advance. The significance of this near-miss cannot be overstated.

Rwanda’s only appearance at the AFCON came in 2004, when the tournament was held in Tunisia, and for the past two decades, the national team has struggled to make a lasting impact on the continental stage.

While Rwanda has shown steady improvement over the years, they have never been able to build on that initial success.

This qualification cycle was supposed to be the one where Amavubi made their long-awaited return to the prestigious tournament, but the dream was dashed by a combination of unfortunate results and missed opportunities.

Spittler&039;s tenure as Rwanda's coach, which began just a year ago, has been marked by significant progress.

This argument may sound repetitive but it is what it is, and putting it any other way will be under-appreciating the hard work that the players and coaches have put in and progress made over the last 12 months.

Again, without sounding boring, it's good to remind ourselves that, prior to Spittler's appointment, Rwanda had gone two years without a single win in international football.

In his first 12 months though, he helped the team secure six wins, including three away from home, which included the stunning win over Nigeria. His record of four draws and four losses, with a defensive record that saw seven clean sheets, reflected a solid foundation being built.

The team’s overall improvement under Spittler, particularly in terms of their resilience and ability to compete on the road has been evident in this qualification campaign.

Add that to the team's impressive start to the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers where Rwanda leads Group C with seven points after 4 rounds of matches. The group also includes South Africa (2), Benin (3) and Nigeria, who are four points behind in 5th place.

But, despite these positive signs, the team's failure to seal qualification has left a sense of disappointment hanging over their recent achievements.

The loss to Libya, a 1-0 defeat in Kigali, proved to be the turning point in Rwanda’s qualification campaign. Had they secured even a draw in that match, they would have entered the Nigeria game with a far clearer path to qualification.

Instead, the loss meant that Rwanda needed a victory over Nigeria and a series of other results to go their way. Though they did manage to beat Nigeria, it wasn’t enough to overcome Benin, who finished second in the group on goal difference.

This cruel twist of fate, with Rwanda finishing third with 8 points, level with Benin but missing out on qualification, stings even more when considering how close they were to realizing their AFCON dream.

Spittler’s sentiments after the game captured the mixture of pride and frustration felt by many.

While he commended his team for their remarkable performance in Uyo, he could not hide his disappointment at missing out on qualification.

In his words, "It feels unacceptable that we could beat Nigeria but still fail to qualify for AFCON," reflect the deep emotional impact of such a near-miss.

For the German gaffer, the achievement of beating a team ranked 36th in the world was a testament to the potential of the squad, but the failure to secure the ultimate goal left him "deeply saddened."

This failure also raises questions about Spittler’s future with the national team. His contract is set to expire in two weeks, and while his achievements in the past year are commendable, his future at the helm of the Amavubi is uncertain.

The Rwanda Football Federation (FERWAFA) has a history of short-term appointments, rarely keeping coaches for more than one or two years.

The fact that Spittler has only been in charge for a year, with a mixed but positive record, places his future in jeopardy.

Some might argue that stability is needed to build on the progress made, while others might feel that the team’s failure to qualify necessitates a change in direction.

In the wake of the disappointment, it is essential for all parties involved to take a measured approach to the future of Rwandan football, in this case, the national team.

Reacting in the heat of the moment, whether out of frustration or excitement, is rarely conducive to making the right decisions.

The players, the coach, and FERWAFA must take time to digest the campaign, reflect on the lessons learned, and approach the next steps with patience and calm.

The fact that Rwanda came so close, finishing just two goals behind Benin, should not overshadow the progress made, particularly with a relatively young squad.

The team’s defensive stability, coupled with the emergence of new talents, such as Ange Mutsinzi and Innocent Nshuti, who scored in the victory over Nigeria, offers hope for the future.

Looking ahead, Rwanda’s prospects remain promising. With Phanuel Kavita, the only player over 30, leading the defense, the team is young and full of potential.

Stability, both on the field and within the technical staff, is crucial for Rwanda to build on their recent progress and eventually secure a return to the AFCON finals.

The next step for Amavubi is to consolidate their strengths, address their weaknesses, and ensure that they do not let this missed opportunity define their future.

The key now is not to dwell on what could have been, but to use this experience as a stepping stone toward greater success. Rwanda must remain optimistic. We can look forward with optimism rather than pessimism, for the road to AFCON 2027 starts now.