Rwanda’s rising domestic food demand presents an opportunity for farmers and actors in the agricultural and livestock value chains, experts have said, recommending accelerating efforts aimed at meeting the demand.

The value of domestic food demand is projected to double from $6.5 billion (approximately Rwf8.9 trillion) in 2020 to $13 billion (approximately Rwf17.7 trillion) by 2040, according to the 2024 Rwanda Country Economic Memorandum report by the Government of Rwanda and the World Bank.

Much of this increased demand reflects a shift in consumption from a diet high in cereals and beans to one consisting of more livestock-sourced products, horticulture, and processed foods and beverages, the pointed out. The increase also reflects more meals consumed outside the home, the report indicated.

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Rwanda’s food trade has increased sharply and is dominated by regional partners. The report suggests that the shifts in food consumption constitute an immense opportunity for increased jobs.

Jules Ngango, an agricultural economist and a lecturer at the University of Rwanda, told The New Times that the demand indeed represents opportunities for local producers who will be guaranteed with market for their agricultural products.

The demand, he said, is also expected to boost Rwanda’s economic growth through increased national production, but he called for scaling up of irrigation efforts to realise this demand.

"Apart from population growth, improvements in living standards, understanding of nutrition, and level of education make people change their consumption habits,” Ngango said, citing adoption of animal-sourced products and horticulture items such as fruits.

What should Rwanda prioritise?

Based on projected population growth and changes in dietary patterns, the World Bank estimates food demand over the next two decades is estimated to be more than twice that of Rwanda’s production capacity, necessitating about 34,000 square kilometres of arable land compared to Rwanda’s 12,400square kilometres even under quite optimistic yield growth assumptions.

Birasa Nyamulinda, another agricultural economist and agribusiness lecturer at Rwanda Institute for Conservation Agriculture (RICA), observed that this demand will be driven by an increase in purchasing power among the population, increased awareness about healthy products, and understanding the importance of animal-sourced products such as eggs, milk and meat, as well as fruits and vegetables in their consumption.

To meet this demand, Nyamulinda said large-scale irrigation projects such as Gabiro Agribusiness Hubin Eastern Province are important, citing a focus on vegetables and fruits.

"Investment should be made in post-harvest management so that the available produce is not wasted, but rather it is properly handled for sustainability in supply,” he noted.

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Rwanda must also place focus on policies that boost productivity to meet the growing food demand, experts say.

"Focus has to be put on the production of key food crops needed in the country such as rice, Irish potatoes, maize, fruits and vegetables, as well as livestock products,” Ngango said, adding that consistency of supply should be ensured and that policies that increase productivity should be put in place.

Ngango suggested that there is a need to support large-scale farmers who can leverage the existingtechnologies, improved seeds, and irrigation mechanisms, to boost productivity.

"Subsistence farmers who produce food on a small scale and own small land are not expected to meet the domestic food demand as it is difficult for them to the required technologies because of limited means,” he noted, adding that the focus should be on large-scale farming.

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Farmers speak out

For farmers, drought or shortage of rainfall, is one of the major challenges to food production.

Marie Therese Uzamukunda, an Irish potato farmer from Bugeshi Sector, Rubavu District, told The New Times that while food demand keeps increasing, farm productivity is not sustainable in part due todrought.

She is one of the farmers hit by a dry spell that started in May and ran through August in the district.

"I was expecting to harvest 15 tonnes of Irish potatoes per a hectare, but I only harvested five tonnes,” she said of the dry spell impact.

Uzamukunda highlighted that although irrigation would offer a solution, some parts of the country including Bugeshi in Rubavu have no access to water bodies, which makes setting up irrigation infrastructure costly.

The World Bank shows in its report that the value of food imports rose from around $400 million in 2015 to $1.1 billion in 2022, or from 15.4 per cent of total imports to 22 per cent over the same period.

The value of food exports rose by less, from $530 million in 2015 to $800 million in 2022, and the share of exports fell from 46.5 percent to 27.2 per cent.

One driver of the increased food imports has been that the increase in food production did not keep pace with the increase in population.

Intra-African food trade accounted for almost half of Rwanda’s total trade, with a sharp increase in recent years and the African market is likely to continue growing over the coming decades.

To address the import-export imbalance, Birasa said that the country should identify and focus on agricultural and livestock products that can be produced locally at a relatively small cost, and only import those that would involve higher production cost domestically.

Overall, he held, importing more foods than a country produces implies difficulties [such as pressure on its currency], calling for keeping momentum in the country’s efforts to set up infrastructure to boost local production.

"It would not be good if the increasing [food] demand is satisfied by imports. So, we should look for ways to make sure that domestic production,” he said, citing irrigation among critical actions.