Rwanda's 2-1 victory over Benin at Amahoro Stadium on Tuesday, October 15, left Group D of the AFCON 2025 qualifiers wide open as each of the four teams in the pool has a fair chance of making it to the finals in Morocco.
For Amavubi, it will be a dream come true if they are able to make it to the continental showpiece in what would be their first time in 20 years.
Rwanda’s only AFCON appearance was in 2004 in Tunisia. They secured the ticket ahead of four-time African champions Ghana and East African rivals Uganda. Surprisingly, history is repeating itself as Ghana is on the brink of missing out again albeit in other group.
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No team from Group D is guaranteed a spot in AFCON 2025 finals as Nigeria, Benin, Rwanda and Libya remain in race for the two tickets which are up for grabs.
Nigeria lead the table with 7 points from three games. Benin follow in second place with 6 points from 4 games while Rwanda have 5 points from 4 game.
Libya find themselves at the bottom with 1 point from three games.
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Nigeria beat Benin 3-0 and Libya 1-0 before being held to a goalless draw with Rwanda.
Meanwhile, Benin lost 3-0 to Nigeria, beat Libya 2-1, thrashed Rwanda 3-0 before losing 2-1 in the reversed fixture.
Amavubi registered two draws against Libya (1-1) in Tripoli and Nigeria (0-0) in Kigali before being hammered 3-0 by Benin in Abidjan. They, however, recovered to beat the same opponent 2-1 in Kigali.
For Libya they drew 1-1 with Rwanda before losing 2-1 to Benin and 1-0 Nigeria. Their return game with the Super Eagles is yet to be played as the West Africans went back home due to alleged mistreatment.
Qualification logic
Looking at the remaining fixtures, Amavubi have a good chance of qualifying for the AFCON finals, their destiny is not in their own hands. They just have to do their homework and pray Nigeria to beat Benin and Libya which will be to their advantage.
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Supposing Amavubi beat Libya in the next game, they will get 8 points. A win for Nigeria will also give them 10 points, meaning they need minimum 1 point from their final two games to qualify. In some instances, 10 points could even be enough to see them through.
Benin vs Nigeria promises to be a dicey West African local derby as the two neighboring countries have a lot in common. The Cheetahs came from behind to beat Nigeria 2-1 in Abidjan in the 2026 AFCON qualifier then the Super Eagles responded with an emphatic 3-0 win over Benin in Oyo in the 2025 AFCON qualifiers.
Nigeria hope to put Benin into their rightful place. If they win, it will be good news for Rwanda would move to second if they beat Libya.
The final match will be dicey as well, both Benin and Rwanda will travel away on November 19.Amavubi will face Nigeria in Oyo whereas Libya also entertain Benin in Tripoli.
Rwanda must pray that before that game, Nigeria could have already qualified so that they either rest their key players which be an advantage for Amavubi. In any case, Nigeria have struggled in Oyo against less fancied teams including Lesotho who picked a point there so Rwanda could follow suit.
Benin's away form has been very abysmal over the years and that could favor Rwanda. They will travel to Libya on November 19 for the final game.
The last time Benin won an away game was on March 27, 2022 when they beat Zambia 2-1 in a friendly match. This development is welcoming for Amavubi as the Cheetahs could struggle against Libya and eventually lose or draw the game.
Now, Rwanda's immediate task will be to clear the two goals deficit they have. They must beat Libya by a three-goal margin or more in November qualifiers to increase their goal difference which would set them apart as long as they find themselves tied on the same points.
All is not lost for Amavubi. Group D is open, all teams have fair chance to qualify. Rwanda could win their two remaining games against Libya and Nigeria but they should pray that Benin drop points in their two remaining games so that they sail through.
Football is not straight forward mathematics, it is among the few things in the world which defy logic. Amavubi should remain focus, work hard and also pray luck smiles on them.