After mapping 326 major flood and landslide disaster risk hotspots in 18 districts of the South, West, North provinces and the City of Kigali, the government in partnership with the University of Rwanda will conduct a "joint research on landslide management,” Christine Hitimana, the Director General of Surveillance and Preparedness in the Ministry of Emergency Management (MINEMA), told The New Times.

She said the disaster hotspots were identified since March, 2024 triggering quick interventions as the rainy season commences.

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She noted that the assessment methodology for identifying 326 disaster risk hotspots utilised a risk model that integrated historical data with the field data collection team.

"To rank the levels of disaster risk hotspots, variables considered included the number of households, the likelihood of disasters, the severity of impact, as well as landscape features and at-risk infrastructure such as roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals,” she explained.

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The joint deep research project on landslide management in the identified disaster hotspots has the main objective to increase knowledge on predisposing soil characteristics and analysing different scenarios, to design the most effective mitigation measures.

"To achieve this, we will need to perform a situation analysis of landslides, establish priorities among the identified hotspots, and develop strategies for effective landslide management,” she said.

What is at risk?

According to the assessment, out of 326 disaster hotspots, 32 are classified as very high risk hotspots, 102 as high risk, 163 as medium as 29 are classified as low risk hotspots.

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The report shows that 8,013 households comprising 39,742 people are at risk.

Of these, 1,624 households are in high risk disaster hotspots while 4, 465 households are in disaster hotspots classified as high risk.

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It shows that 144 bridges and roads are at risk while 3,432 hectares of crops are at risk.

The report also highlights that 29 schools, three health facilities, two hydropower plants and three markets are at risk.

The City of Kigali has identified key disaster hotspots as part of its strategy to avert losses as heavy rains are expected this month.

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Martine Urujeni, the Vice Mayor for Socio-Economic Affairs, said the hotspots include Gatsata, Jabana, Nduba, Kimisagara, Nyakabanda, Kigali, and Mageragere sectors, as well as areas near wetlands.

Disaster costs and what should be done

On average, disasters cost the country approximately $300 million in direct effects on an annual basis according to MINEMA.

In a bad year, it says, where several hazards combine, the cost can double or triple.

About 40 percent of the country’s population, 43% of health facilities, 25% of schools, 45% of paved national roads are exposed to landslides.

The high level of population exposure to landslides is evident in the highlands of the western, southern and northern provinces.

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On average, disasters damage 100 sections of transport infrastructure, including road sections and bridges, resulting in significant rehabilitation costs, and damage more than 15,000 hectares of cultivated land, posing huge risks to food security.

MINEMA recommends that there is a need for prioritising landslide risk reduction measures (reforestation, slope stabilisation, and drainage improvements) in areas with high susceptibility to mitigate the impact on communities and infrastructure.

Measures also include increasing disaster preparedness and response capabilities such as training emergency responders, developing contingency plans, and establishing early warning systems to reduce disaster impacts.

Others are implementing soil conservation measures and promoting sustainable land management practices to reduce the impact of disasters on cultivated land and safeguard food security in vulnerable communities.

The Government has launched the National Programme for Soil Erosion Control (NAPROSEC), an ambitious and inter-ministerial initiative that seeks to tackle human and natural drivers of soil erosion.

Erosion and flood control can save more than $183 million per year of disaster damage if implemented countrywide.

The initiative focuses on empowering communities to take the lead in implementing soil erosion control measures (progressive and radical terracing, afforestation, gully control among others).

The initiative targets delivery of 489,000 hectares of progressive terracing.