International departures will reach 68 per cent of the pre-Covid-19 levels globally in 2022 and are expected to improve to 82 per cent in 2023 and 97 per cent in 2024, before making a full recovery by 2025 at 101 per cent of 2019 levels with a projected 1.5 billion international departures.
However, the trajectory for the recovery in international departures is not linear across regions or countries, says GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
Hannah Free, Travel and Tourism Analyst at GlobalData, said: "International travel from North America had shown improvement in 2021 as international departures grew by 15 per cent year-on-year. The US rose to become the world’s largest outbound travel market in 2021. In 2022, outbound departures from North America are projected to reach 69 per cent of 2019 levels, before making a full recovery by 2024, at 102 per cent of 2019 levels, ahead of other regions.
"International departures from European countries are expected to reach 69 per cent of 2019 figures in 2022. As travel confidence rebuilds, the intra-European market is expected to benefit, driven by preferences for short-haul travel.
"However, travel recovery must contend with inflation, rising costs of living, and the war in Ukraine. By 2025, international departures are projected to be 98 per cent of 2019 levels. Geographically, the war has not spread beyond Ukrainian borders. However, Russia was the world’s fifth largest outbound travel market in 2019, while Ukraine was the twelfth. Going forward, limited outbound travel from these countries will hinder Europe’s overall tourism recovery.
Asia-Pacific is expected to lag in terms of recovery. Outbound departures from the region will only reach 67 per cent of 2019 levels in 2022, owing to the relatively slower removal of travel restrictions, and the propensity for renewed domestic restrictions during Covid-19 outbreaks.
Once the region’s and the world’s largest outbound travel market, China is not showing any signs of relaxing its strict border measures in the short-term. In 2021, international departures from China were just 2 per cent of 2019 levels.
Free added: "While global international travel is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, tourism demand may look quite different. From two years of very limited travel, several long-term shifts and short-term trends have emerged. Consumers are now more likely to pursue authentic experiences, demand personalised travel offerings, blend business and leisure travel, and be more conscious of their overall environmental impact. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal situation. However, a potential full recovery by 2025 at the latest gives good reason for the travel and tourism industry to be optimistic for the future.
As the travel industry’s recovery starts to gather pace, many tourist boards are looking to differentiate themselves from rival destinations by focusing on their cuisine rather than traditional natural hot spots, cities, or coastal locations, the firm further noted
According to GlobalData’s Ads Database, Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs) for Turkey, Malta, and Indonesia have focused on their national cuisine to entice new tourists.
Marketing campaigns have included glossy images and short videos covering traditional cooking methods to boost cultural appeal. The development of these marketing campaigns appears to be in response to growing demand for international cuisine and culinary experiences, with DMOs using this to gain a competitive advantage over rival destinations.
Craig Bradley, Associate Travel and Tourism Analyst at Global Data, said: "DMOs appear to be reacting to a change in traveler sentiment towards gastronomy. Development of this trend has been brought on by the pandemic, which has helped broaden the palates of many tourists despite the closure of many restaurants during 2020 and 2021.
"Many restaurants needed to adapt to pandemic restrictions to survive, so they started selling meals via food delivery services such as Just Eat, Deliveroo and Uber Eats. These services have made international cuisines more accessible to consumers than ever before due to their low-touch service offering, intuitive smartphone apps, and efficient mobile payment systems. As a result, global awareness of alternative international cuisines has increased considerably enabling tourist boards to utilize this in attractive marketing campaigns to entice potential tourists.”
This trend is unlikely to slow either, with the food delivery market set to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7% between 2021 and 2025, according to a 2021 GlobalData Food Insights & Trends report. As a result, millions of individuals will continue to sample new cuisines and flavors from their local restaurants.
According to a GlobalData Q4 2021 Global Consumer Survey, 47 per cent of respondents said that they find the broader availability of cuisines the most appealing reason to consume food and drink outside of the home, highlighting the global appetite for experiencing new flavors. It is reasonable to assume that the same sentiment applies to tourists within a destination. Many will be enthusiastic about encountering local culture and customs, including food and drink.