As Rwanda continues to prepare itself to preside over CHOGM, I believe that it has a unique opportunity and responsibility. The world has changed considerably since last CHOGM and continues to do so at a very rapid rate. CHOGM has the potential of bringing a diverse group of member states together to discuss the common challenges they face, the specific challenges especially in relation to key themes such as climate change, but more importantly to carve out their destiny and opportunities for the future.
The future is in fact a key element in the chosen theme for the upcoming CHOGM meeting in Kigali. The theme "Delivering a Common Future: Connecting, Innovating, Transforming.” Is extremely relevant for today’s world and today’s reflection is on the word ‘future.’
Never has the future been or looked so challenging. Following the Covid pandemic and a fragile economic environment, especially for many states that are dependent on tourism and whose recovery is still gaining momentum, many governments are faced with considerable public debt and little leeway to continue supporting the economy. The war happening in Ukraine is expected to push up the prices for commodities significantly especially wheat, grains, and energy. The challenges relating to climate change are also looming and significant for some member countries.
Over the past few years and even currently, there has been a collective realisation that the global environment is being characterised even more by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA). Covid-19 has been the perfect embodiment of VUCA whereby governments all over the world, have and continue to face all the elements of VUCA.
What is VUCA?
First introduced as a concept by the American War College to describe the global multilateral situation after the Cold War, it draws upon the leadership theories of Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus, and has over the years, been increasingly used in business management and strategic leadership.
Volatility is a situation with unstable changes, and unexpected challenges that could last for an unknown duration.
Uncertainty is a situation where there is a lack of predictability, even though the basic cause and effect might be known.
Complexity is a situation with countless interlinked variables and factors, with some or all of the information available or predicted, but the sheer scale of it makes it challenging to process.
Ambiguity is a situation where cause and effect are not so clear, there is no prior experience to fall back on, and the management faces an unclear reality or future filled with countless unknowns.
These are all becoming known adjectives to describe what both governments and companies are facing. However, what is need is a way to deal with VUCA and which can be used to build a new future for all, countries and companies alike. The answer in dealing with VUCA rests with VUCA 2.0.
What is VUCA 2.0?
Coined by Bill George, a senior fellow at Harvard Business School; Vision, Understanding, Courage and Agility (VUCA 2.0) are seen as the antidote or strategy that companies and countries should adopt to help them navigate an ever-more VUCA environment.
Vision is the ability to see through the fog and plan for ahead for a changed future. Business leaders should use this time to stop, evaluate and plan for the post Covid-19 reality. This phase will pass, and if organisations have planned for what to do when the time comes, they will be anticipating and ready to move ahead of others who have not. This is also extremely relevant for countries and governments who need to take stock of all the challenges, present and future, and develop a vision for their country to emerge stronger.
Understanding is where leaders first must truly understand their organization’s strengths and potential blind spots, to pick the best strategies that play to their advantages. In this stage, information gathering is crucial, not only within the organization but also outside, from as wide a spectrum as possible, ranging from employees, to clients, and even about the industry and economy. This applies to governments and companies alike and here CHOGM and The Commonwealth Secretariat can play a key role, as they already do, in supporting the capacity of governments to understand the external and internal environment.
Courage is the audacity during difficult times to make decisions based on calculated risks that could go against all common practice and beliefs. Sometimes, organizations must consider going against traditionally successful techniques and take risks, because in the rapidly changing world of today, being second to act could be the difference between survival and failure. This is even more so for governments; however, the electoral cycle always threatens such courage.
Agility is essentially the need for organizations to be flexible to change and adapt. While mid and long-term plans are necessary, strategies do have to be flexible enough to rapidly adapt to external circumstances, without affecting or changing the organization’s overarching vision and mission. Same goes for governments that have the responsibility to be agile in order to support the country in carving out opportunities.
There is no doubt that CHOGM comes at a very delicate time for the global economy as well for the general world order. With a war happening in Europe which can derail global peace and the global world order, a still fragile global economy with the risks of a global inflation crunch and economic war, coupled with a pandemic that remains present; the threats to the global economy remain real and largely on the downside. The discussion at CHOGM needs future focused. Once again, Rwanda is definitely an inspiration that member states should draw on when attending CHOGM.
Throughout the past decades, Rwanda has embodied what VUCA2.0 is all about. Today it has transformed the country and economy to a pioneering African state which is growing in its international profile and stature. I believe that CHOGM should launch future forums whereby member states come together to share best practices, opportunities and learning experiences in thematic areas. Several key themes will shape the future and will in turn be shaped by the future. The future of manufacturing, compliance, tax, technology, tourism, democracy, governance, public health and much more need to be central themes of CHOGM. By taking a lead and establishing such future forums, Rwanda will further emphasise its diplomatic credentials but also its visionary and executive credentials.
CHOGM is getting closer. The theme is aspirational for all member states within CHOGM and it demands that there is the right amount of reflection in preparation for such an important event. I believe that although the run-up and the actual event are important, it will be even more important for Rwanda to establish itself as a leader of thought and action. Our common future demands this responsibility and leadership, and I am confident that Rwanda will rise up to the occasion.
The writer is a co-founding partner of Seed, a research-driven advisory firm with offices in Europe and Dubai.
www.seedconsultancy.com |
jp@seedconsultancy.com