Election outcomes and political dynamics in Rwanda and beyond
Friday, August 23, 2024

In 2024, over half the world’s population will participate in national elections. The outcomes across more than sixty countries, including the European Union, will have profound impacts not only on individual nations but on global dynamics as well.

The institution of the "Presidency” has evolved into one of the most powerful in the world, with leaders capable of starting and ending wars, shaping economies, and profoundly affecting their countries' trajectories.

However, those writing about political leadership, particularly in Africa, often do so without engaging directly with the leaders themselves. Instead, they rely on distant observations, historical theories, books, and reports, leading to sweeping generalizations that paint African political leaders as uniformly bad, inept, and corrupt—with the notable exception of Former South African President Nelson Mandela.

But is this assessment fair? Can one accurately evaluate leadership from afar or through the lens of preconceived notions? Psychologist and author Adam Grant points out, "Criticizing is easy and fast. Creating is difficult and slow.

The two hours you spent on a book or movie usually took two years to produce. Anyone can tear down someone else’s work. The true test of insight is whether you can help them improve it or build something of your own.”

Political Progress and Maturity

Colonial powers, despite having democratic systems at home, often left behind non-democratic state structures in Africa. The authoritarian rule required to maintain control during colonial times divided or even destroyed many societies.

However, in the decades since independence, positive trends in leadership have emerged across Africa, particularly in Rwanda, where Unity and Reconciliation became a reality 30 years after the genocide against the Tutsi.

Elections play a crucial role in the rebuilding of nations and are now held consistently and fairly across the continent. In Sub-Saharan Africa alone, there have been numerous elections: eight countries held presidential elections in 2018, nine in 2019, eleven in 2020, ten in 2021, three in 2022, eight in 2023, and nineteen are scheduled for 2024.

Significantly, incumbent presidents have lost elections and stepped down peacefully in countries like Malawi (2014), Nigeria (2015), Ghana and Sao Tome & Principe (2016), Somalia (2017), Sao Tome & Principe and Zambia (2021), Somalia (2022), and Liberia (2023). In multiple instances, elections have gone to a second round due to no candidate receiving a majority, with outcomes being accepted without issue.

Both Kenya (2017) and Malawi (2020) experienced nullified presidential elections by their respective judiciaries—only the third and fourth instances globally. In both cases, new elections were held, and the transitions were smooth.

Africa’s political landscape continues to mature, bringing increased stability and economic prosperity. While challenges remain, including coups and entrenched leaders, peaceful political transitions and free and fair elections are on the rise.

Rwanda’s National Elections

Rwanda’s recent national elections are a testament to the country’s political progress. On July 15th, over nine million Rwandans, including about two million first-time voters, registered to cast their ballots in a presidential race held concurrently with legislative elections for the first time.

According to the National Electoral Commission of Rwanda, President Paul Kagame won 99.18% of the vote, with Frank Habineza and Philippe Mpayimana receiving 0.50% and 0.32%, respectively. This result reaffirms the national confidence in Kagame’s leadership, which has been marked by robust participation and a commitment to democratic principles.

The election showed Rwanda's progress toward stability and economic growth. As the nation looks ahead, the mandate reflects a collective vision for continued development, social cohesion, and international cooperation under proven leadership.

Many predicted Kagame’s victory due to his widespread popularity and endorsement by eight other political parties. His leadership has been transformative, making Rwanda a safe and secure country, achieving significant advancements in infrastructure, universal access to education and healthcare, and uniting a nation that was once deeply divided.

For many Rwandans, this election represents a "contract” with President Kagame to continue enhancing good governance and the fight against corruption as Rwanda continues its socio-economic transformation. While such a high electoral score is rare and unimaginable in the West, it reflects the will of the Rwandan people.

The Danger of a Single Story

Nigerian writer Chimamanda Adichie, in her widely acclaimed TED Talk on the danger of a single story, warns of the critical misunderstandings that arise when only one narrative is told. The danger of a single story is not that it is wrong, but that it is incomplete.

For example, democracy is often measured by a Western yardstick, and anything different is quickly deemed undemocratic. However, this single story of democracy is limiting, as every country brings its unique social values, histories, ideals, and experiences into its governance style. Each democracy is unique, and unique is not wrong—it is simply unique.

When hearing that an incumbent has won 99% of the electoral votes, many might cry foul. However, since 1994, Rwanda’s GDP has grown by more than 8% annually on average, while child mortality fell by 77%, and life expectancy rose from 40 to 69 years, according to the United Nations.

Rwanda also leads the world in gender equality in parliament and is renowned for wisely spending aid and promoting forward-looking economic policies.

Rwanda’s Constitution includes power-sharing arrangements, such as Article 62, which ensures that the President and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies cannot come from the same political organization. No political party can hold more than fifty percent of Cabinet seats, even if they win 99% of the vote, ensuring that opposition parties are well represented.

What Exactly is Democracy?

For my book, Africa: Reframing Political Leadership, I interviewed Heads of State across Africa to understand political leadership from their perspectives. They all noted the inaccurate assumptions foreigners have about Africa and its political systems.

This ignorance is particularly vexing when foreigners claim that Africa is not democratic and does not know how to govern correctly. One leader emphasized, "We fought for democracy,” noting that during colonial rule, Africa was under dictatorships, and their fight was for democracy.

Another pointed out the inconsistency in how different democracies are viewed globally, questioning why Western democracies are all different yet are not labeled undemocratic.

None of the leaders claimed Africa’s democracies are perfect, but they all insisted that democracy in Africa should develop as it has in other parts of the world. President Kagame, speaking at the Harvard Institute of Politics, highlighted the need to recognize Africa’s progress:

"The conversation on democracy in Africa is so dogmatic because deep down, we are still thought to be incapable of anything better than mimicry. I disagree.... Rwanda is moving forward. Our progress is real, and it is being driven by innovations and institutions that work.”

The Pot Calling the Kettle Black

One area of governance regularly debated is whether there should be term limits for heads of government. Interestingly, many countries advocating for term limits in Africa, Asia, and Latin America do not impose such limits on their own leaders.

Recent years have shown that even Western-style democratic political leadership has its challenges, including in some of the most developed countries.

The word democracy originates from the Greek words "demos" (people) and "kratos" (power), signifying "rule by the people." As the world changes, so do the needs and expectations of the people. Democracy, therefore, must evolve to address these changes, including the rise of far-right movements in Europe, the effects of climate change, an aging global population, Africa’s youthful population, and the influence of AI on governance.

Expanding Our Views on Democracy

The time has come to expand our understanding of democracy beyond the Western blueprint. By examining democratic systems through an interdisciplinary lens that includes culture, history, leadership, psychology, and anthropology, we gain a broader perspective on people-first political leadership and can better understand political phenomena like Rwanda’s election outcomes.

In 2024, democracy faces significant global challenges, from political polarization to eroding public trust, all of which threaten its resilience and effectiveness. The prevalence of social media and the internet has amplified discontent, economic inequalities, social divisions, and disinformation.

As countries grapple with these issues, it remains critical to strengthen civic engagement, uphold the rule of law, and promote transparent governance. The future of democracy—whether in Rwanda, the United States, France, or elsewhere—depends on nations’ ability to address these complex challenges while fostering inclusive and accountable systems of governance.

The author is a political researcher and professor.