How did Rwanda move from a challenger to an incumbent of the geopolitical order in Africa? The intervention in Cabo Delgado in Mozambique marks a paradigm shift in the history of the Rwanda Defence Force and of Rwanda in general. Until then, the leaders of Rwanda’s modern aspiration had challenged the post-colonial Rwandan State based on ethnicity and the post-cold war regional political order.

The bilateral interventions in Central African Republic and Mozambique were different from challenging the status quo. Rwanda was no more a challenger suffering from the lack of international norms but had become an incumbent defending international norms. In a sense, Rwanda has moved from a deprived consumer to a capable supplier.

The early signs of an ambition to assume responsibility can be found in Rwanda’s steep learning curve from being a recipient of a measly peacekeeping force to becoming the 4th biggest contributor of peacekeeping forces in the world. Operating within the realm of UN rules of engagement, Rwanda had joined mainstream.

This effort to normalise her belonging in the international order was mirrored internally by the adherence to international norms in good governance. The results were encouraging as evidenced by numerous international rankings around public health, doing business, corruption, macro-economic stability etc. In a sense, Rwanda has built up a bankable balance sheet.

The leadership capacity to navigate through this turmoil against the background of globalisation is nothing short of a miracle. Especially because Rwanda’s economy never stopped to grow thereby giving her citizens increased shareholder value, despite a background of conflicts with regional, international and Non-State incumbents. 

Rwanda’s approach is similar to disruptive innovators: small in size, big in ambition, fast in execution. Unlike start companies powered by technology and high quality education, Rwanda’s start up journey emerged out of a painful history of exile, genocide against Tutsi and poverty. This bears the question of replicability: Is Rwanda’s value proposition sustainable in the absence of the adverse conditions out of which it emerged?

The transition from challenger to incumbent sheds some light on this question. In essence, you can only grow from a challenger to an incumbent once you have the capacity of local value addition across time.

In fact, the majority of the workforce in Rwanda belongs to a post-genocide generation without active memory of the dreadful period between 1959 and 1994. Thus, there is method at play, Rwanda managed to translate experience into transferrable institutional knowledge.  Nonetheless, the transition from challenger to incumbent also bears some risks.

First, the transition from incumbent to challenger creates animosity amongst incumbents or aspiring incumbents, especially those who arrived at different outcomes despite similar starting conditions. Ironically, the latter are often times erstwhile allies.

Second, it can be dangerous if it leads to a sense of entitlement. In such case, Rwandans would start thinking of themselves as being different from other Africans. The ambition is then articulated in proprietary terms. This mentality would inevitably lead to institutional decay.

Third, it may require a different way of doing business, holding a position is different from disrupting one. The skills set that got us here may be different from the skills set that will get us there. Lastly, there is of course the threat of a new set of challengers.

There is nonetheless no doubt in my mind that Rwanda will successfully sustain this transition on the international scene. The main reason being that Rwanda did not aim at incumbency in the first place but rather at redefining African dignity (Agaciro).

This ambition is a target that shifts with each accomplishment, therefore it never provides the comfort of establishment. This ambition is not proprietary but rather a shared value that strives on inclusion. The secret of transforming from a challenger to an incumbent is strangely enough to stay on course with your values.