The year 2021 experienced changing weather patterns which have had an impact on the agriculture and the livestock sector. Experts have confirmed that due to climate change Rwanda is now facing unusual floods and dry spells. Below are the highlights of how changing weather conditions affected the country in 2021.

1.     Prolonged rains in 2021 Season A

As early as March 2021 climate experts had started to warn that climate change was fuelling unusual rains in Rwanda.

And indeed as Anthony Twahirwa, the Division Manager of Weather/Climate Services and Applications at Rwanda Metrological Agency, puts it 2020 was the hottest year, triggering changes in weather patterns in 2021.

In January and February 2021 the country witnessed unusual rains.

"We used to experience short dry seasons in the same period previously, but this year we experienced heavy rains that killed people, animals and destroyed properties. This is due to global warming,” Twahirwa said.

Engineer Charles Mugabo, a climate change expert, cited an example of how rains prolonged from September 2020 up to March in 2021 yet Rwandans were used to a short dry season between December and February before getting into another wet season from March to May.

Rwanda used to have four seasons but it is tending to have two extreme seasons, rainy and dry, owing to changes in the weather patterns.

As result, unusual rains also affected the agriculture and livestock sector in 2021.

A report by the Ministry in Charge of Emergency Management has shown that 2,685 hectares of crops were damaged by different disasters including heavy rains, hailstorms, strong wind, landslides from January to October 12 this year.

2.     Early end to the rains in Season B

Jean Claude Izamuhaye, the Head of Department, Crop Research and Technology Transfer at Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB) told The New Times that an assessment revealed that the delay of rainfall and early cessation of rains caused by climate change was affecting farmers.

For instance, rainfall early cessation in agricultural 2021 Season B led to a 20-30 per cent reduction of expected bean yield in some parts of Burera District.

There was also a 5-10 per cent yield reduction compared to the expectations in some locations of the Eastern province.

For maize, yield reductions were evaluated around 20 per cent in Bugesera and Nyagatare districts.

Figures show that the production target for beans was 1.69 tonnes per hectare in the 2020/21 fiscal year, but the production remains below the target.

In the course of 2021, scientists told The New Times that the number of rainy days in Rwanda has declined by between 35 and 45 days per year due to climate change and therefore rainy seasons tend to change.

This is according to the analysis in climate trends in Rwanda which covered the period from 1971.

Meanwhile, in the northern region, there has been a rise of 5.6 rain days.

These changing weather patterns, scientists said, affect the agriculture sector among other sectors.

3.     Fall in milk production as dry spells prolonged

Due to the prolonged drought when rains ceased very early in 2021 Season B, milk production drastically decreased and trigger a hike in prices on the market.

Farmers who talked to The New Times confirmed the production dry spells decreased the production.

"We face a shortage of cow fodder during dry spells. Some cows even die. For instance this year dry spells lasted from May to almost October. My two cows have died. Milk per cow has decreased from 15 litres to five or even less,” said Serugendo Serge, a livestock keeper in Bugesera District.

Francis Nkurunziza, another livestock farmer from Mwogo sector, said that the prolonged spells reduced eight litres to four litres per one cow as grass dried.

"My six cows died during the recent prolonged dry spells,” he said.

Gahiga Gashumbam, the President of Nyagatare Dairy Farmers Union, told this paper that the prolonged dry spell has reduced milk production due to a reduction in animal feeds.

"We were supposed to supply 90,000 litres of milk processing plants per day, but we are only supplying 40,000 litres,” he said, adding that some cows have died.

Inyange Industry’s processed milk production reduced by half owing to the shortage of supply from farmers.

In Nyagatare District, for instance — one of the highest milk producing districts in the country— where they used to collect 100,000 litres from milk collection centres, the supply was reduced by over 80 per cent to some 13,000 litres, Biseruka said

4.     Reduction in crop yields

Evariste Tugirinshuti, the president of Maize Farmers’ Cooperatives Federation in Eastern and Southern provinces says that the prolonged dry spells could reduce maize produce to between 40 and 50 per cent.

At least 37,000 hectares were affected by a lack of rains and were in need of urgent irrigation intervention to help farmers offset potential losses.

5.     Food relief to drought-hit farmers

The Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources launched an exercise to distribute food relief to over 36,000 households comprising over 156,000 members that were affected by prolonged drought in Eastern Province.

At least 41 sectors in these districts were affected in seven districts.

The affected districts include Bugesera with 6,591 households affected, Gatsibo with 2,542 households affected, Kayonza with 15,670 households affected, Kirehe with 8,227 households affected, Ngoma with 800 affected households, Nyagatare with 1, 248 households affected and Rwamagana with 378 households affected.

6.     Climate shocks eroding 1.4 per cent of Rwanda’s GDP

At the end of the year, experts revealed that Climate disasters are wiping 1.4 per cent annually from Rwanda’s gross domestic product (GDP), signalling an urgent need to increase investments in the management of climate shocks so as to build the resilience of households.

Ivan Murenzi, the Deputy Director-General of the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda said that 34.6 per cent of households have reported negative shocks caused by drought, floods, landslides, crop pests and livestock diseases.

Statistics, he said, show that 42.5 per cent of households in rural southern provinces are affected by drought as 65 per cent of households in Eastern provinces faced similar shocks.