The new Members of Parliament elected in July assembled in Parliament on Wednesday, August 14, for a swearing-in ceremony after which they will elect the next Speaker and other members of the parliamentary bureau, the two deputy speakers.

The question on everyone’s mind now is; who is likely to be the Speaker of the fifth Chamber of Deputies?

Donatille Mukabalisa, from the Liberal Party (PL), was the Speaker of the fourth Chamber of Deputies which was dissolved by President Paul Kagame on June 14, ahead of the July 14-16 presidential and parliamentary elections. She did not contest in the elections.

In October 2013, the then former Senator became Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies after she was elected by 79 of the 80-member lower house, with her only challenger, Nura Nikuze, taking the other vote. Mukabalisa was no novice in Rwanda’s legislature and politics in general. Among others, from July 2000 through 2003, she played a role in the Transitional National Assembly where she served as deputy chairperson on the standing committee on economy and trade.

Three key factors – general legal guidelines, past trends, and experience – can be considered while predicting who, among the 80 new lawmakers is likely to lead the House. Currently, none of the MPs has publically announced that they are contending for the speakership.

Legal considerations

Article 62 of the Constitution of Rwanda provides that power-sharing is respected in State institutions in accordance with the fundamental principles set out under Article 10 of the Constitution.

These important principles include equitable power-sharing, building a state governed by the rule of law, a pluralistic democratic government, equality of all Rwandans and between women and men which is affirmed by women occupying at least 30 per cent of positions in decision-making organs.

For one, according to the law, the President of the Republic and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies cannot come from the same political organisation. This implies that the Speaker cannot come from the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF-Inkotanyi), a political organisation from which President Paul Kagame comes.

Trends in holding speakership

Since October 10, 2003, when the Chamber of Deputies was established – a after transitional period – it has had three Speakers, so far. Alfred Mukezamfura from the Centrist Democratic Party (PDC) was the Speaker from 2003 to 2008.

Rose Mukantabana, the Speaker from 2008 to 2013, joined Parliament after being elected as an MP representing women, as a special interest group, from the City of Kigali.

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Mukabalisa was the Speaker for two five-year terms, from 2013 to June 2024.

Her last term had an additional year following the revision of the Constitution to allow presidential and parliamentary elections to be held at the same time. This implies that the lower house has had two female Speakers, consecutively.

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Gender equality

This consideration implies that at least one among the top five leaders of the country should be a woman. If this factor comes into play, and it is likely, a female contender among the lawmakers to be nominated stands a higher chance to be the new Speaker.

Currently, four among the top five, namely the President of the Republic, the President of the Senate, the Prime Minister, and the President of the Supreme Court (Chief Justice), are men.

The elections of new senators are scheduled for September and it is not certain whether the current President of the Senate, François Xavier Kalinda, will continue to hold that position. But what should matter during the lower house elections is the present state of affairs.

Taking all this into consideration, female MPs such as Madina Ndangiza are among potential picks by colleagues.

Ndangiza was re-elected under the ticket of the women special interest group.

Ndangiza is a member of the Ideal Democratic Party (PDI), for which she is Secretary General.

Last year, she was elected the Chairperson of the Commonwealth Women Parliamentarians, Africa Region for a term of office of three years (2023-2026). Ndangiza is an attorney and gender specialist with 16 years of experience supporting internationally-funded programmes.

Other probable names include Hope Tumukunde Gasatura, the former ambassador of Rwanda to Ethiopia and Permanent Representative to the African Union, who was elected MP under the women special interest group category.

Jeanne d’Arc De Bonheur, a lawyer from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), is another name to think about. She was the Minister of Disaster Management and Refugees until October 2018 (it is currently the Ministry of Emergency Management).

Experience, and representation size

Both PL and PSD secured five seats in Parliament, out of the 53 seats corresponding to the number of MPs who are elected through universal suffrage.

This makes them second-placed parties in terms of parliamentary representation after the RPF-Inkotanyi coalition that secured 37 seats.

Theogene Munyangeyo, previously the Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Economy and Trade in the fourth Chamber of Deputies, is number one on the list of MPs elected from PL.

Another potential candidate is Valens Muhakwa, who was the fourth Chamber of Deputies’ Public Accounts Committee (PAC) chairperson. Muhakwa is number one on the list of lawmakers elected from PSD. But the fact that current Senate President Kalinda, is also from PSD, does not favour the former.

Then there is the former Internal Security Minister Sheikh Mussa Fazil Harerimana, also from the Indeal Democratic Party. Harerimana was the Deputy Speaker in charge of Finance and Administration in the fourth legislature.

But, the fact that one of the top five should be a woman, condenses the chances for men to secure the speakership.

This is just our prediction based on law, past trends, and best practices in the spirit of power-sharing and inclusion.

Ultimately, it&039;s the members of the Chamber of Deputies, who are set to take oath of office this afternoon, who will have the final say, electing the next Speaker and two Vice Speakers in what will be the first business on their agenda following their inauguration.