According to Rwanda Energy Group (REG), the country needs $1.5bn to achieve universal energy access by 2029 after missing the 2024 target.

Currently, the target stands at 77.7 per cent, up from 34.4 per cent in 2017 under the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) which ran from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2024.

In terms of energy generation, the target was to increase capacity from 208 MW in 2017 to 556 MW by 2024, by developing a mix of hydropower, thermal methane, solar, and other renewable energy projects.

The strategic objective of the project was to build a balanced and cost-optimised generation mix sufficient to meet growing demand.

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According to Armand Zingiro, CEO of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), the key factors that contribute to the expansion of electrification are numerous, one of which is developing internal capacity to address gaps, particularly when contractors fail to meet expectations.

"On our journey to universal access, one of the approaches/strategies we took with the support of the government is that we started by extending the national grid in all the provinces, then we went in all districts, and after that, all sectors got electricity, now we are at the village level,” Zingiro explained.

Currently, power plants can generate 460MW across the country. However, due to the season, some power plants are not operating to their maximum capacity, while others are in maintenance, leading to the availability of only 270MW in the grid for consumption. Meanwhile, the available 270MW satisfies the current peak demand recorded at 231MW.

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As per the prevailing electricity access rate in Rwandan households, all 416 sectors in the nation have network extensions built in line with the National Electrification Plan (NEP).

The nationwide access rate has reached 77.7 per cent of which 54.4 per cent is grid and 22.8 per cent is off-grid. The top three districts are Gakenke with 96.9 per cent, Kicukiro with 93 per cent, and Nyarugenge 92.4 per cent.

Twenty-five districts out of 30 have an access rate exceeding 70 per cent while the remaining five districts have access rates ranging from 61 to 69 per cent.

He also mentioned developing an internal ability to fill gaps, especially when contractors fail to meet expectations, as well as robust control mechanisms, IT tools/systems, and efficient audits, to increase residents’ resilience.

"Scattered settlement is still a challenge but together with relevant stakeholders we are working on practical solutions to overcome this challenge,” Zingiro added.

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According to Zingiro, the failure to achieve the universal energy access goal was impeded by funding shortages, procurement challenges, Covid-19-related material supply chain disruptions, as well as other political crises. Moreover, households residing in dispersed communities and lacking the capacity to maintain off-grid solutions were identified as contributing factors.

Projects in pipeline to meet 2029 target

Zingiro said there are projects in the pipeline to connect 1.3 million households between 2024 and 2029.

The projects to expand the energy mix through increased use of renewable sources involve the Nyabarongo II Hydropower Project, aiming to produce 43.5 MW of power. Located at the Nyabarongo River, the Nyabarongo II Multipurpose Dam is currently being built on the Northern and Southern provinces' border, between Kamonyi and Gakenke Districts.

The dam will measure 59 metres high and 363 metres long, creating a reservoir with a storage capacity of 803,000,000 cubic metres.

To meet energy targets, Ruzizi III is a 206MW hydropower project being developed on the Ruzizi River. It flows along the DR Congo, Burundi, and Rwanda borders. Rusizi III will add 68MW to Rwanda’s grid.

Other projects in the pipeline are improving grid infrastructure and expansion, solar power projects, power trade, and promoting regional energy trade as part of the East African Power Pool (EAPP), and the Central African Power Pool (PEAC) to enable power trade projects.