At the start of 2024, the public transport system underwent - in successive stages - a far-reaching reform. Following a transfer of responsibility from RURA to the City of Kigali, the authorities purchased hundreds of new buses, opened up the operation of these vehicles to competition and increased fares by 40%.

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This reform, like the previous one 11 years earlier, aims to improve the public transport offer by increasing the number of buses without subsidizing the service. Through a regulatory framework designed to encourage private investment to meet public objectives, Kigali has been developing a unique model on the African continent for over a decade. In most capitals, from Nairobi to Dakar, minibuses are operated by micro-operators focused on short-term profitability. The authorities are often outmaneuvered by a powerful group of transporters who have the merit of moving hundreds of thousands of people every day.

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The previous reform of public transport in Kigali, implemented between 2011 and 2013, was noted on the continent. It demonstrated that it was possible to increase the supply of public transport through regulation, while improving service quality, without the government having to spend public money.

2010's: successful modernization of public transport

Starting in 2013, RURA introduced a five-year operating license system for operators in four zones within Kigali. The three selected operators (Kigali Bus Service, Royal Express and Rwanda Federation of Transport Cooperation) were invited to increase their fleet of vehicles and expand their network to serve new localities in the fast-developing City of Kigali.

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In just a few years, the transport offer has been completely transformed. The 600 or so minibuses on the road in 2013 had completely disappeared in 2017, replaced by Coasters (the number of which increased from 250 to 300 units between 2013 and 2017) and standard buses (which increased from 20 to almost 150 units over the same period). In addition, many bus stops have been modernized and the smart card has been developed to simplify financial transactions.

Despite these notable developments, the authorities felt that the initial objectives of the reform had not been achieved. Latent demand was still high, and operators were abandoning routes that RURA, the City of Kigali and the Ministry of Infrastructure wanted to see operated. The private operators, for their part, complained that the tariffs set by the regulator did not allow them to cover their costs and that they only abandoned routes that were not economically viable.

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2019 - 2024: too long a status quo

In 2019, the authorities undertook an in-depth review of the three operators' business models, with the aim of encouraging private investment in the sector without subsidizing operations. This work led to new ambitions with the introduction of schedule services as part of a second-generation contract. But that didn't happen.

In 2020 and 2021, Covid-19 severely penalized the sector, with successive confinements depriving operators of their revenues. Operators were then faced with a +65% increase in diesel prices (from January 2021 to December 2022). To support the sector without passing on energy costs to ticket prices, the government subsidized the operation of urban and intercity buses from 2020.

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But despite this government support, the situation for users deteriorated considerably. The number of buses on the road dwindled, leading in interminable waiting times and difficult travelling conditions due to overcrowding. And although new operators were licensed to operate, it failed to meet expectations. City engineer Emmanuel Katabarwa's stated aim is to double the number of buses to 500.

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2024: a new beginning

From August 2023 onwards, things moved very quickly. Firstly, the functions of the contracting authority were transferred from RURA to CoK. Secondly, the City of Kigali ordered for 300 new buses. The first 100 entered service in January 2024, most of them entrusted to new operators.

The licensing system introduced in 2013 has evolved from monopolies in four zones to competition between operators along seven corridors. Finally, a fare reform was announced in March: the government ended its nationwide operating subsidies (which cost the state Rwf87.5 billion) and RURA increased fares by 40 percent.

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By March 2024, the public transport system was on a new footing. The planned arrival of 200 additional buses should go a long way towards supporting the new regulatory system that has been put in place to increase the quantity of services and improve their quality for users. However, to guarantee the sustainability of public transport, we will have to pay close attention to the economic model of the operators, who will have to use their fare income to repay their loans and cover their operating costs – fuel, wages, repairs, and so on.

Key factors for the success of the reform

The success of the reform both in the short and long term will depend on a number of factors that it is important to highlight at this stage. Firstly, the City of Kigali will need to strengthen its public transport team in order to fully play its role as contracting authority. It will need to establish a solid contractual framework and manage contracts with operators.

This contract management relies on a respectful dialogue between private operators and public authorities. To achieve this, it will be necessary to objectify the situation on both sides, using common performance indicators (KPIs). Setting up a monitoring system is an essential element in enabling the City of Kigali and RURA to adapt the regulatory framework to changes in the economic environment.

Secondly, the fare system needs to be revised in the short term. The fare system in Kigali is based on a logic that suits the operators (one fare per kilometer travelled). Instead, it needs to be structured according to users’ expectations (currently, to make the same journey from point A to point B, a user can pay different fares depending on the number displayed on the bus). Soon, fares should no longer depend on the number of kilometers travelled by the bus, but on the distance travelled by the user. The technological advance of Kigali's transport system with the smart card must be fully exploited for a reform that will bring greater fairness and legibility for users.

The public authorities must also carefully consider the commercial speed of the public transport network. If buses remain stuck in traffic jams, the efforts of public authorities to support the sector will be in vain. New junction designs and intelligent transport systems (ITS) can give priority to buses at certain intersections, ensuring attractive journey times. In addition to the benefits for users, these low-costs measures can significantly reduce bus operating costs and optimize investment in new vehicles.

Finally, if the measures taken meet urgent needs. It is essential to anticipate the situation between now and 2030. The quality of an urban mobility system is a major asset for the economic dynamism of a metropolitan area. With an annual growth rate of around 12% in the number of cars on the road, traffic will double in seven years. Expanding the road network cannot be the only answer. A multimodal strategy will have to be devised to strengthen the role of public transport on certain corridors, so that motorcycles do not become the only option for the middle classes.

The author is the Director of International Operations at Transitec Consulting Engineers, an independent engineering consultancy firm, specialized in mobility.