El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon that has caused unusually warm waters in the east Pacific Ocean—disrupting global weather patterns and driving up temperatures—has been a big driving factor for higher temperatures in Rwanda, Alphonsine Musanganire, a meteorologist at Rwanda Meteorological Agency told The New Times.
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Different parts of the country, from March 11 to March 20, experienced average maximum temperature ranging between 20 degrees Celsius and 30 degrees Celsius "which is slightly above the range of long-term average maximum temperature.”
El Niño can trigger extreme weather events globally, from fierce droughts, wildfires, and heat waves to deadly flooding and tropical storms.
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South Sudan is the latest in a long line of African countries to experience blistering and, in many cases, record-breaking heat.
Meteorologists across the world have been documenting an increasing number of temperature extremes, with 2023 becoming the world’s hottest year on record.
Musanganire explained that this year, March at the global scale registered intense sunspot activities that are associated with a slight increase in temperatures.
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"The sun’s position around the Equator through March–June as the usual routine trajectory modulates temperature over the region including Rwanda. We expect slightly higher temperatures to continue throughout the March-May 2024 season over the entire country due to the advection of warm and humid air in the atmosphere as a result of persistent El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. coupled with projected positive IOD in the Indian Ocean.”
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas.
The higher temperatures observed during the second 10 days of March 2024 were also recorded in the past years, she said.
The 36°C temperature, she noted, occurred on March 10, 2010, in Bugarama plain.
Normal temperature expected from March 21 to 31
Meanwhile, Musanganire said, normal temperature is expected between March 21 and March 31, 2024, according to analysis.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a report released on Tuesday, March 19, that 2023 was the warmest year on record at a degree which is above the pre-industrial average.
The report said there is a "high probability” that 2024 will be another record-hot year and warned that the world’s efforts to reverse the trend have been inadequate.
Extreme weather events such as extreme heat and drought, and associated wildfires, major floods, and tropical cyclones might continue to affect the globe, it said.
The report comes as climate experts and government ministers gather in the Danish capital, Copenhagen, on March 21 and 22 for the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial— the first major climate meeting since COP28—to press for greater climate action, including increased national commitments to fight global warming.