Celebrations to mark the departure of Gambia’s president Yahya Jammeh might have been too early. After conceding defeat, the man has now changed his mind and rejected the outcome of the presidential election.

This is more like it. It was perhaps too optimistic to imagine that Jammeh would suddenly change his spots.

His unexpected concession to the opposition candidate had caused some excitement and raised hopes that peaceful, democratic change was growing in Africa. Many reasons were put forward to explain Jammeh’s decision.

The man had had a conversion and seen the light, and was ready to leave power and go quietly to his farm.

Or he had been persuaded by the fear of a big stick his bigger neighbours wielded and which they were ready to use to whip him into acceptance of the election result.

Again, this was evidence, from the most unlikely source, that democratic change was finally taking hold.

Some even used this to generalise about electoral politics in Africa, particularly drawing a distinction between East and West Africa. According to this view, West Africa was increasingly seeing more peaceful and democratic change of leaders, while in East Africa the trend was towards violent confrontation and clinging on to power.

Some of this might be true, although it appears to be more an expression of hope than actual reality.

First of all, it was too much to imagine that Jammeh had suddenly been cured of mysticism and other idiosyncrasies, and had acquired a normal personality. Clearly he has not. Nor has he been bitten by a democratic bug so viciously that he has morphed into democracy’s most ardent supporter.

Secondly, the big stick is not much in evidence, although there have been noises from the African Union and the United States. The AU’s past actions do not inspire much confidence that it will act any differently this time.

It has proved powerless in places like Burundi. And unless there is another conversion, this time on the part of continental powers and institutions, Gambians might be stuck with Jammeh as Burundians have been with Pierre Nkurunziza.

In much of East Africa, elections tend to be feisty, violent affairs and their outcome often rejected. There are several reasons for this.

Here political contests should not, strictly speaking be called political because they are based on individuals, personalities or nationalities, not on alternative or opposing political visions or programmes.

Take the example of Uganda. The last four presidential elections have been contests between President Yoweri Museveni and Kiiza Besigye as individuals and less between their respective political organisations. And so politics has been polarised by the individuals involved and not the ideas they espouse.

In Kenya, political contest is also hardly ideological, but personal, tribal and dynastic. Nearly all political parties are little more than tribal organisations and their leaders no more than tribal chiefs. They can only build a semblance of national organisations by cobbling together regional alliances.

Leaders of most of them are the sons of former national leaders. In a sense what you have is a continuation of the contests between their parents. All the trappings of democracy, like the constitution, political parties, and elections and so on are only the vehicle for this dynastic competition.

In some of these countries, too, politics is big business. People go into it for the money they earn in salaries and other allowances, as well as the connections and opportunities it provides.

For all these reasons, a lot of emotions and passions are invested in elections more than would be expected in usual democratic contests. Such passions grow in intensity during the election period, and once unleashed are difficult to control, and lead to irrational and violent acts.

In these circumstances, animosities run deep and chances of accepting defeat at the polls are minimal, and the temptation to cling on is great. In that sense East Africans can understand what Jammeh is doing, even if they do not necessarily agree with it.

jorwagatare@yahoo.co.uk