Expected rainfall of 30 to 250 millimetres in January could lead to flooding in certain areas of the country, Rwanda Meteorology Agency has warned.

"Impacts associated with heavy rain are likely in south-western parts of the country in the first 10 days of January, where increased rainfall ranging between 80 and 120 millimetres is expected,” the forecaster stated.

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One millimetre of rain translates to one litre of water in a single square metre (area of a square whose sides measure exactly one metre) meaning that with 120 millimetres of rain, a single square metre would receive 120 litres.

Alphonsine Musanganire, a meteorologist at Rwanda Meteorological Agency, explained how millimetres are interpreted to project heavy rain.

Rainfall below 10 millimetres is considered light and has very low impact while moderate rainfall ranges between 10 and 25 millimetres with low or minor impact.

Heavy rain with significant impact ranges between 25 and 40 millimetres while very heavy rain with high or severe impact starts above 40 millimetres.

"There are thresholds developed on disasters that happened before. The millimetres in the thresholds are considered in 24 hours meaning which rainfall reaches such a level in 24 hours,” she said.

In the first 10 days of January, the weather forecaster stated: "Likely impacts are flooding, poor visibility during rainstorms, soil erosion and landslides in areas of high slopes. Preparedness and mitigation measures should be put in place by relevant institutions and the public to minimise impacts that may be caused by the expected rain.”

The expected rainfall amount in the first 10 days will be above the range of rain recorded over a long period across the country, except in many parts of Eastern Province, Kigali City and Northern Province.

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Rainfall ranging between 100 and 120 millimetres is the highest expected over eastern parts of Rusizi and Nyamasheke, western parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru districts, and southern parts of Karongi mainly in Nyungwe National Park.

Rainfall ranging between 80 and 100 millimetres is expected in remaining parts of Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Nyamagabe, Nyaruguru and Karongi districts.

This amount is also predicted in many parts of Rubavu and Huye districts.

The rainfall ranging between 10 and 20 millimetres is the lowest amount expected over eastern parts of Nyagatare, Kayonza, Gatsibo and localised parts of Kirehe and Bugesera districts.

The rest of Eastern Province and Kigali city are expected to record rainfall ranging between 20 and 40 millimetres while the remaining parts of Northern, Western and Southern provinces are expected to experience rainfall ranging between 40 and 80 millimetres.

According to the forecast, moderate to slightly strong wind speeds ranging between four and eight metres per second are expected across the country.

Moderate to slightly strong wind speed ranging between six and eight metres per second is expected in many parts of Musanze, Burera, and Southern Province [except parts of Muhanga District], and Eastern Province except in the parts of Ngoma, Rwamagana and Kirehe districts, together with the remaining parts of the country where moderate wind speed ranging between 4 and 6 metres per second is predicted.