The year 2023 might have begun on a positive note, with regional peace mechanisms offering hope that the insecurity in eastern DR Congo would be solved or, at least, that political dialogue would finally have its way.

Just over a year after its deployment, the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) on December 21 completed its exit from Goma, capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu Province, citing a mixture of successes and drawbacks during its stay in the unstable country.

The conflict between the M23 rebels and a government-led coalition still raged on.

As part of a withdrawal plan that started in December 2022, M23 rebels continued to pull out of key positions held in North Kivu in January 2023. The M23 withdrawal was expected to pave the way for negotiations with the Congolese government. But that didn’t happen as the government of Felix Tshisekedi continued to firmly hold onto its position that the M23 is a terrorist movement, with which they cannot have peace talks.

The Luanda and Nairobi processes sought to find a political end to the conflict.

The Luanda process in particular sought to mend the relations between DR Congo and Rwanda, which worsened due to Kinshasa’s allegations that Kigali supported the M23 rebels.

Rwanda dismissed the accusations, and instead accused the Congolese army of collaborating with FDLR, a genocidal militia that threatens the region’s and Rwanda’s security.

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In the lead-up to the December 20 elections, Tshisekedi said he would declare war on Rwanda if re-elected.

That was after the United States government offered to mediate the peace efforts to defuse the tensions. The presidential election was allegedly marred by malpractices and some candidates threatened to call for protests.

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A short-lived EAC mission

As soon as DR Congo was admitted into the bloc in April 2022, Tshisekedi got support of the leaders of the East African Community to bring an end to the insecurity in the east of the country, which is home to more than 130 local and foreign armed groups.

But, barely a year later and within three months of the deployment of the EAC regional force, in February 2023, his government was accusing the regional force of favouring the M23. In a video filmed shortly after a summit of EAC heads of State, on February 4, in Bujumbura, Tshisekedi was seen confronting the then EAC regional force commander Maj Gen Jeff Nyagah in front of Kenya’s President William Ruto.

"Don’t favour the M23,” Tshisekedi is heard saying in the video that made rounds on social media. "It would be a shame if the population attacked you. You came to help us to solve a problem, not to be part of it.”

Two days after the summit, protests erupted in the eastern Congolese city of Goma, accusing the regional force of being ‘passive’ instead of fighting the M23.

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It should be noted that the regional force’s mandate did not include use of force, unless the armed groups refused to withdraw and, in this case, the EAC heads of state would have to approve the use of force.

In April, Nyagah resigned, citing "an aggravated threat” to his personal safety. He said that there was "a systematic plan to frustrate efforts” of the regional force.

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In May, Tshisekedi courted the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for a military mission to his country. After SADC leaders approved the military deployment to eastern DR Congo, Tshisekedi threatened to kick the EAC regional force out of his country if it didn’t engage the M23 militarily.

The regional force’s mandate was renewed twice in May and September, Kinshasa’s threats notwithstanding.

After the Congolese government refused to renew the mandate, the regional force finally began withdrawing its troops on December 3, five days before the mandate expired. It withdrew about one month after hostilities had resumed.

With the election results due to be announced by the end of December and SADC still waiting to deploy its troops, the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes hang in the balance.

While the year 2022 offered hope for a regional solution to the crisis in eastern DR Congo, 2023 saw all regional efforts frustrated, and Tshisekedi beating the drums of war.