Editor,

RE: "Should Rwanda adopt the ‘one-child per family’ policy?” (The New Times, December 11).

I teach demography at the University of Rwanda. Every year I calculate a population projection on the blackboard with all students participating. To keep the math simple, I use 12 million for Rwanda’s population and focus on 20-year cohorts.

Currently, 50% of Rwanda’s population is at 20 years or below (6 million above 20 years, 6m below 20). If the average woman has 4 children, by 2035 (20 years from now) the population will grow to 24 million (6m above 40 years, 6m between 20 and 40 years, and 12m below 20).

Even if average family size is kept to three, the population grows to 18 million. And when we project 2075—60 years from now—we see Rwanda’s population exceeding 30 million even in best-case scenarios (such as an average 3 children per family in 10 years, and 2 children per family beyond that).

These numbers are truly frightening. Even Bangladesh’s population is not expected to reach this density, and that country is a fertile river delta, not like Rwanda’s infertile soils and mountainous topography.

I do not support one child per family because it can only be achieved by draconian measures that are morally unsupportable. But the sooner Rwanda can move family size expectations to a sustainable two children per family, the sooner the population will stabilize.

Dr. Simeon Wiehler