The African Union has authorized the deployment of a force, dubbed the African Prevention and Protection Mission in Burundi (MAPROBU), for an initial period of six months renewable.

This was in the final communiqué following Thursday’s 565th meeting of the Peace and Security Council (PSC).

It is a development applauded by many, including Désiré Assogbavi, Head of Oxfam Liaison Office to the AU, but uncertainty remains over, among others, how long deployment will take.

Assogbavi who is based in Addis Ababa tweeted: "A courageous decision by the PSC, a hope for Burundi. I can't agree more with the PSC. I hope the UNSC will endorse this immediately and provide support”:

"This is the African Union we want! Now let's deploy quickly!!!” the Togolese lawyer added.

The AU admits that in spite of all the efforts made to date, the situation in Burundi continues to deteriorate and that there is a real risk of the situation degenerating into widespread violence, with catastrophic consequences for Burundi and the entire region.

Last week, Dr. Yolande Bouka, a regional Political and Security Analyst, tweeted that: "If we want African solutions to be taken seriously, then our solutions need to take the problems seriously”.

The force’s mandate includes: preventing deterioration of the security situation, monitoring its evolution and reporting developments on the ground; contributing, within its capacity and in its areas of deployment, to the protection of civilian populations under imminent threat; and contributing to the creation of the necessary conditions for the successful holding of the inter-Burundian dialogue.

The force will have an initial strength of up to 5,000 military personnel and police, including formed police units, with an appropriate civilian component, shall integrate the human rights observers and military experts deployed to Burundi in pursuance of the relevant decisions of Council.

"Council requests the Chairperson of the Commission to immediately undertake consultations with Member States, including the countries of the region in the framework of the EASF, to generate the troops and police elements needed to quickly reach the authorized strength,” reads the communiqué.

End last year, after concluding a major joint exercise in Adama, Ethiopia, the Eastern Africa Standby Force (EASF) – one of the five regional forces for peace support operations (PSOs) of the African Standby Force – announced its deployment readiness to respond swiftly to the security challenges in the region.

Member states – especially Rwanda, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda – had contributed the required standby 5,200 troops.

Bujumbura snub

However, a Burundi government spokesperson, Gervais Abayeho, is quoted telling Al Jazeera on Saturday, that: "We will not allow foreign troops in Burundi. We don't need them”.

Paul D. Williams, Associate Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University, has published an article in which he states that even if the Burundian government consents to its deployment it would also require a Security Council resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.

"The major controversy, however, would arise if the Burundian government does not consent to MAPROBU’s deployment,” writes Williams, who also opines that the latest PSC communiqué represents a novel form of coercive diplomacy for the AU.

He writes that Article 4(h) of the AU’s Constitutive Act claims "the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.”

According to Prof. Williams, the PSC’s invocation of Article 4(h) would seem to imply that one of these crimes was occurring in Burundi or was imminent, and hence the emphasis of the mission was to prevent further escalation.

He further notes that it seems reasonable that crimes against humanity were the main immediate concern for the PSC, along with a desire to prevent escalation.

An AU fact-finding mission sent to Burundi from December 7 to 13 reported that the situation of violence there was of great concern.

The four-member delegation of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (the Commission), received reports of ongoing human rights violations and other abuses including arbitrary killings and targeted assassinations, arbitrary arrests and detentions, torture, arbitrary suspension and closure of some civil society organizations and the media, among others. 

Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, in his opening statement to the Human Rights Council 24th Special Session on Thursday, said "Burundi is at bursting point, on the very cusp of a civil war.”

"At least 400 people have been killed since 26 April – and the death toll may be considerably higher. Of these, up to 68 may have been extra-judicially executed in November. At least 3,496 people have been arrested in relation to the political crisis,” he said.

"While the future of the county is in the hands of Burundian leaders, this Council has a clear responsibility to do all in its power to prevent the worst from materializing in Burundi in the coming days.”

Force mission documents not developed 

The deployment timeframe, however, remains unclear as the concept of operation of MAPROBU and other mission documents are reportedly not yet developed.

In its communiqué, the Peace and Security Council, the AU’s standing decision-making body responsible for the maintenance of continental peace and security, is requesting the Chairperson of the Commission, in collaboration with the EASF and with the support of the UN and other international partners, "to take the necessary steps for the urgent development of the concept of operation of MAPROBU and other mission documents, as well as the estimated budget for the deployment of MAPROBU.”

It is understood that should the situation so require, Council stands ready to increase the initial authorized force strength. Member States are requested to provide the financial and other support required.

The PSC furthermore urges international partners to provide the necessary technical, financial and logistical support to facilitate the "early deployment” of MAPROBU and the effective implementation of its mandate.

"In particular, Council urges the UN Security Council, in view of its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security, to support the deployment of MAPROBU and authorize the urgent establishment, in its favor, of a logistical support package funded by assessed contributions to the UN budget.”

The Council also requests the Chairperson of the Commission to take all necessary initiatives to facilitate the urgent mobilization of international assistance and to report to Council within a period of seven days on the evolution of efforts to reach out to international partners, particularly the UN Security Council.

Apart from imposing new targeted sanctions against four individuals whose actions threaten the peace, security, and stability of Burundi, the U.S. Department of State on December 18 announced that the US government stood ready to support the AU and the region in taking all necessary steps – including possible deployment of an intervention force – to prevent further violence and achieve a consensual, political resolution to this crisis.

In November, the US slapped sanctions on Burundi's Public Security Minister Alain Guillaume Bunyoni -- the regime's number two -- and three others, linked to the country's descent into violence.